Severe Thunderstorm Warning 394, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
223 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...LITTLE CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THUS MOSTLY PERSISTENCE FORECAST SEEMS THE MOST
PRUDENT APPROACH. ANTICIPATE TYPICAL DIURNAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
TOMORROW. AGAIN...GFS GUIDANCE POPS SEEM OVERDONE ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN ZONES. THUS GENERALLY FOLLOWED NAM GUIDANCE AS IT
APPEARS MORE REASONABLE. FOR TEMPS...GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY
CLOSE AND APPEAR REASONABLE BASED ON PERSISTENCE. STAYED CLOSE TO
THE GFS GUIDANCE VALUES FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...(MON NIGHT THROUGH SUN)...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.  HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FRONT MAKES IT BEFORE WASHING OUT IS PROBLEMATIC AS USUAL THIS
TIME OF YEAR...BUT REGARDLESS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
LOW LEVEL DRYING/COOLING FOR OUR AREA.  ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO PUSH IN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH TIMING VERY
UNCERTAIN THAT FAR OUT.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THESE
PERIODS...OTHERWISE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS MOS TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK
REASONABLE...SO JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN  74  94  73  93 /  10  20  20  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  93  72  90 /  10  30  20  40
OAK RIDGE, TN  73  94  72  90 /  10  30  20  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN  69  89  68  87 /  20  40  30  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

LCM/LDW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-
005-006-008-071200-
CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-
SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-
NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-
BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-
SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-
WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-
530 AM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006/430 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

TNZ070-062100-
JEFFERSON-
400 PM EDT SUN AUG 6 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER JEFFERSON COUNTY...WITH THE
STRONGEST CELL NEAR DANDRIDGE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH. WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN

DMG

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