Severe Thunderstorm Warning 340, NWS Morristown, TN

000 
WWUS54 KMRX 211934
SVSMRX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

TNC065-211945-
/O.CON.KMRX.SV.W.0340.000000T0000Z-060721T1945Z/
HAMILTON TN-
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM EDT
FOR HAMILTON COUNTY...

AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SHADY GROVE...OR ABOUT
13 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLEVELAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3541 8507 3529 8523 3509 8505 3530 8493

$$

HW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST ON TRACK. NO UPDATE PLANNED. DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS HAS SLOWED HEATING SLIGHTLY. LATER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CUT SHORT HEATING SO LOWER MAX TEMPS FCST CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD.
EXPECTING OROGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY TODAY. STORM MOTION
SHOULD BE TO THE SE WHICH WILL MAKE VALLEY LOCATIONS A BIT MORE
VULNERABLE. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED BUT INVERTED V FCST SOUNDINGS AND
ENHANCED DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL PERSISTS. SON

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THINNING MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...WITH MCS
OVER SRN IL-IN LIKELY TO WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING TN LINE. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THAT ACTIVITY PROBABLY WONT REACH FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
BE A FACTOR FOR LATER TODAY. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SLOWLY SAGGING
COLD FRONT LOOK TO BE MORE OF A FACTOR FOR INCREASING CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY...BUT WEAKENING CAP AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY JUSTIFIES
PREVIOUS POPS FOR AT LEAST NRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SHOULD BE AREAS OF AT LEAST WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS NOT AS EXCITED ABOUT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SRN AREAS
AS NOTED IN MOS POPS...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE SO POPS WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY ACROSS SE TN INTO SW NC. THIS ALSO BROUGHT OUR GRIDS MORE
IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES IN THOSE AREAS.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...OF THE PULSE TYPE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS INCREASES MUCH
MORE ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...LIKED THE MAX TEMPS FROM PREVIOUS
GRIDS FOR TODAY...WHICH WERE A LITTLE BELOW THE WARMER MOS CHOICES.
MINS TONIGHT NEAR PERSISTENCE VALUES...WHICH WAS VERY CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS MIN TEMP GRID.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
FROM OHIO VALLEY INTO TENNESSEE VALLEY SATURDAY AND BRINGS COLD
FRONT TO EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND TENNESSEE BORDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
GFS SHOWS DRIER AIR PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY BUT NOT SURE IF IT
WILL MAKE IT ALL THE WAY SOUTH AND EAST OF FORECAST AREA. KEPT
CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. BOUNDARY MAY
MOVE BACK NORTH MONDAY BUT KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WENT ON THE
HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS FRONT SAGS
SOUTH. PREFERRED THE HIGHER MET GUIDANCE LATER IN THE DAY OVER THE
GFS SOLUTION OF HIGH POPS AT 12Z. RAISED HIGHS A DEGREE SATURDAY.
MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE MAY BE A LITTLE HIGH SATURDAY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN UNLESS THE RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. CHANCE
OF SEVERE SATURDAY WITH NAM MODEL SHOWING AIRMASS QUITE UNSTABLE MID
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITH FRONT
MOVING SOUTH FROM KENTUCKY DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT IT
APPEARS STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAST ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT AS WELL AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES TO UP TO 3 INCHES FOR ONE HOUR AMOUNTS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN            95 73 86 68 / 40 40 60 60
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 93 72 85 67 / 60 40 70 60
OAK RIDGE, TN                      91 72 85 66 / 60 40 70 60
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN             88 69 83 65 / 60 40 70 60

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

TG/TD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
505 AM EDT FRI JUL 21 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-220930-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
505 AM EDT (405 AM CDT) FRI JUL 21 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...
AND EXTEND EAST TO WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF KENTUCKY BY EARLY
TONIGHT.  DAYTIME HEATING AND THIS APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST TENNESSEE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ISOLATED STORMS COULD REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS...WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH.  THE
STRONGEST STORMS MIGHT ALSO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL UP TO PENNY SIZE.
MOST STORMS WILL BE MOVING SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH...
AND COULD BRING BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AND
COMBINE WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT...TO CREATE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  THERE WILL BE A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY...AS WESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE.

THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...AND
HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE OR SLIGHTLY LARGER.  ON A POSITIVE NOTE...
SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE
REGION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THIS COLD FRONT SETTLES
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION BY LATE SUNDAY.  MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THEN TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ON SATURDAY.

TG