Severe Thunderstorm Warning 315, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
800 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.DISCUSSION...OUR AIR MASS IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE PUSHING IN.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS THE
REGION IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  A FEW OF
THESE STORMS HAVE REACH STRONG TO SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE OF THE STORMS IS DIMINISHING.  THE CONVECTION IS STRONGLY
THERMALLY ENHANCED AND EXPECTED THE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING.  HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MRX CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
AREA.  ALL LOOKS GOOD IN THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE...NO UPDATES
EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  85  68  83 /  40  70  70  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  83  66  82 /  40  80  70  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  82  65  83 /  50  80  70  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  80  62  80 /  50  90  70  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

MJB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
502 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-051000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
502 AM EDT (402 AM CDT) TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND
INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WEDNESDAY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

TD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
815 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

VAZ006-050045-
RUSSELL-
815 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING RUSSELL COUNTY...

AT 806 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAVEN....MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SUSTAINED WINDS OR GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL OF PEA TO LESS
THAN PENNY SIZE...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THESE
STORMS MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING.

MJB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
818 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

TNZ073-074-050115-
NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
818 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING SEVIER COUNTY...

AT 818 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ELKMONT...WEST OF GATLINBURG. THIS STORM WAS
MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 15 MPH AND WILL AFFECT GATLINBURG AND PITTMAN CENTER
AND OTHER AREAS OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...MAY OCCUR WITH
THIS THUNDERSTORM. BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...AND
POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE THROUGH WATERS
OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN

ALSO...IF YOU ARE CAMPING NEAR STREAMS...BE VERY CAREFUL. STREAMS FLOOD
WHEN HEAVY RAIN FALLS UPSTREAM...AND YOU DONT EVEN KNOW IT IS RAINING UP
THERE.

BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
822 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

TNZ040>043-050115-
COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-
822 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING COCKE AND GREENE COUNTIES...

AT 816 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES EAST OF PARROTTSVILLE....MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH. OTHER STORMS WERE NEWLY DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
GREENE COUNTY.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. THIS
COULD BLOW SMALL BRANCHES OFF TREES AND MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR...MAY OCCUR WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADWAYS...AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT
DRIVE THROUGH WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND DONT DROWN

BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
840 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

VAZ001-050130-
LEE-
840 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING LEE COUNTY...

AT 836 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF JONESVILLE....MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JONESVILLE BY 855 PM EDT.
  PENNINGTON GAP BY 910 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SUSTAINED WINDS OR GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL OF PEA TO LESS
THAN PENNY SIZE...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THESE
STORMS MAY REQUIRE ISSUANCE OF A WARNING.

MJB

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