Severe Thunderstorm Warning 310, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
246 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TUE NIGHT AND WED)...UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS. POPS HAVE BEEN
INCREASED TO CATEGORICAL BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS LIFT INCREASES
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. ALSO ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
RENEGADE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH/SURFACE
FRONT TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE CONVERGES BETWEEN
RETREATING UPPER RIDGE AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE STRONG AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS AS PW VALUES APPROACH AND EVEN EXCEED TWO INCHES.
ANTICIPATE SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS WITH EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AND INCREASING TREND IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

.LONG TERM...(WED NIGHT THROUGH TUE)...SURFACE COLD FRONT PROJECTED
TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. GFS REMAINS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH
THIS PROCESS AND GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR...WILL BE FAVORED. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO LAST UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN UPPER RIDGING
BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. A RETURN TO
TYPICAL SUMMER-TYPE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED BY THEN. NO
STRONG SIGNAL IN ANY OF THE NCEP...NOGAPS OR CANADIAN ENSEMBLES
NOTED TO WARRANT SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM GFS GUIDANCE. THUS
GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO GFS GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             72  85  68  83 /  40  70  70  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  72  83  66  82 /  40  80  70  30
OAK RIDGE, TN                       71  82  65  83 /  50  80  70  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              68  80  62  80 /  50  90  70  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS/LCM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
502 AM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-051000-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
502 AM EDT (402 AM CDT) TUE JUL 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF EAST
TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. DUE TO THE HEATING OF THE DAY AND
INSTABILITY A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA EARLY
WEDNESDAY AND PROVIDE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION WEDNESDAY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WEDNESDAY AND CONTAIN HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY.

TD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
529 PM EDT TUE JUL 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRING CITY             35.69N 84.86W
07/04/2006                   RHEA               TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A LARGE LIMB DOWNED ONTO A ROADWAY IN SPRING
            CITY...CAUSING A TRAFFIC ACCIDENT. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW ROCKWOOD          35.85N 84.69W
07/04/2006                   ROANE              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ONE TREE DOWN ON BURKE MILL ROAD. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

0455 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HARRIMAN                35.93N 84.56W
07/04/2006                   ROANE              TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A POWERLINE AND LARGE LIMBS DOWNED AT INTERSECTION OF
            ROUTE 27 AND RIGGS CHAPEL ROAD. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

FERRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
534 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

TNZ074-042230-
SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
534 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SEVIER COUNTY AND THE GREAT
SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK...

AT 530 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GATLINBURG. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK.

WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND ONE INCH PER HOUR. PEOPLE OUTDOORS IN THE PARK
SHOULD SEEK SHELTER.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

DGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
558 PM EDT TUE JUL 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S SNEEDVILLE          36.48N 83.21W
07/04/2006                   HANCOCK            TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN THE DUCK CREEK AND
            TRENT VALLEY AREAS. REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

&&

FERRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
619 PM EDT TUE JUL 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SPRING CITY             35.69N 84.86W
07/04/2006                   RHEA               TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND LARGE LIMBS DOWNED AND A FEW ROOFS
            DAMAGED IN SPRING CITY. REPORTED BY DISPATCH AND STORM
            SPOTTER.

&&

FERRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
640 PM EDT TUE JUL 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 NNW KNOXVILLE         36.05N 83.99W
07/04/2006  E60 MPH          KNOX               TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH ON RACCOON VALLEY ROAD.
            REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR.

&&

FERRELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
708 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

TNZ014-038-050015-
CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-
708 PM EDT TUE JUL 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING CLAIBORNE AND GRAINGER
COUNTIES...

AT 707 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF MAYNARDVILLE....MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES PRIMARY
KILLERS. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN GRAINGER AND SOUTHEASTERN CLAIBORNE
COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY AND PREPARE
TO SEEK SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

DGS