Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
144 PM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...MAIN ACTION WILL BE THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. A SHORT-WAVE WILL SWING
AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS SHOW AN AREA OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A JET
SWINGING ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK FRONT WILL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EARLY EVENING.  GIVEN GENERALLY
PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION HAS BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES ABOVE 2000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES
BETWEEN -4 AND -6.

SOUNDINGS SHOW LOWERING WBZ AS COLD AIR ALOFT SWINGS DEEPER INTO
THE REGION GIVENING THE POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL. ALSO...FAIRLY
DECENT MID-LEVEL DRYING EVIDENT WITH MPDIS APPROACHING 1 AND SURFACE
TO MID-LEVEL THETA-E DIFFERENCE OF OVER 22. ALSO...INVERTED
V-PROFILE NOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER..SO DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS A CONCERN
AS WELL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE SPINE OF
APPALACHIANS WITH GENERALLY SINKING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH INCREASING
MID-LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION. AT THE SURFACE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION. BESIDES SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST SECTIONS...DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

...LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
WEAKENING OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW INCREASING HEIGHTS/THICKNESS...SO
A GENERAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED. ALWAYS CONCERNED WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS...BUT AT THIS TIME LITTLE IF ANY UPPER SUPPORT
FOR CONVECTION...SO MAINLY TERRAIN FEATURES FOR FOCUS. INCLUDED MINIMAL
20 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  82  55  84 /  20  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  78  53  81 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  78  53  81 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              53  74  48  78 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
905 AM EDT SUN JUN 4 2006

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-050900-
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MTN-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-CLAY-COCKE SMOKY MTN-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LEE-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-
MEIGS-MORGAN-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-
NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-NW BLOUNT-RHEA-ROANE-RUSSELL-
SCOTT TN-SCOTT VA-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MTN-SOUTHEAST CARTER-
SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-
WASHINGTON TN-WASHINGTON VA-WEST POLK-WISE-
905 AM EDT (805 AM CDT) SUN JUN 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL DEEPEN ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT...SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.  THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
440 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MADISONVILLE            35.52N 84.36W
06/04/2006                   MONROE             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN AT 538 FAIRVIEW RD, IN MADISONVILLE. REPORTED
            BY DISPATCHER.

0430 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHATTANOOGA             35.07N 85.26W
06/04/2006                   HAMILTON           TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST
            PORTION OF THE COUNTY. REPORTED BY DISPATCHER.

&&

MEP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
559 PM EDT SUN JUN 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0543 PM     HAIL             1 W GATE CITY           36.64N 82.60W
06/04/2006  E0.75 INCH       SCOTT              VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZED HAIL IN THE DANIEL BOONE COMMUNITY. REPORTED
            BY A STORM SPOTTER.

&&

FERRELL