Snow Advisory 3, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS43 KMPX 121830
WSWMPX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1230 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...POTENT WINTER STORM WILL HAMMER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY...

.HEAVY SNOW ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA WILL OVERSPREAD WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING...AND WORK EAST
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TONIGHT. A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WINTER STORM
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 6 AND 10 INCHES EXPECTED IN A SWATH FROM GRANITE
FALLS...TO ST CLOUD...TO THE TWIN CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA...TO
RICE LAKE WISCONSIN. PERIODS OF INTENSE SNOWFALL ARE EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA...WITH VISIBILITIES OCCASIONALLY BEING REDUCED BELOW ONE
QUARTER MILE. IN ADDITION...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

FOR MUCH OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...A MIXTURE OF
SNOW AND SLEET IS EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS
IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE.

FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...NEAR
MORRIS...ALEXANDRIA...AND LITTLE FALLS...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE
COMBINED WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY.

SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE SNOW WILL END ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MNZ051>053-058>070-073>078-082-083-WIZ014>016-023>025-027-130230-
/O.CAN.KMPX.HS.W.0001.060313T0000Z-060313T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0002.060313T0000Z-060313T1800Z/
SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-
WASHINGTON-YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-
DAKOTA-REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-
BLUE EARTH-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-CHIPPEWA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELK RIVER...CAMBRIDGE...CENTER CITY...
LITCHFIELD...MONTICELLO...MINNEAPOLIS...BLAINE...ST. PAUL...
STILLWATER...GRANITE FALLS...OLIVIA...HUTCHINSON...GAYLORD...
CHASKA...SHAKOPEE...BURNSVILLE...REDWOOD FALLS...NEW ULM...
ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...FARIBAULT...RED WING...ST. JAMES...
MANKATO...AMERY...BALSAM LAKE...RICE LAKE...BARRON...LADYSMITH...
HUDSON...NEW RICHMOND...RIVER FALLS...PRESCOTT...MENOMONIE...
BOYCEVILLE...CHIPPEWA FALLS...BLOOMER
1230 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...HEAVY SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM
CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 12 PM CST MONDAY. THE HEAVY SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. 

SNOW TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY FROM GRANITE FALLS AND OLIVIA...EASTWARD ACROSS THE TWIN
CITIES METROPOLITAN AREA...TO RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH WISCONSIN.
SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

MNZ043>045-049-050-054>057-130230-
/O.UPG.KMPX.SN.Y.0003.060313T0000Z-060313T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0002.060313T0000Z-060313T1800Z/
MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEARNS-BENTON-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-
CHIPPEWA-KANDIYOHI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITTLE FALLS...PRINCETON...MORA...
ST. CLOUD...FOLEY...MADISON...BENSON...MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR
1230 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM
CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 12 PM CST MONDAY. THE SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH 6 TO 9 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
A FEW COMMUNITIES IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA INCLUDE
MONTEVIDEO...WILLMAR...ST. CLOUD... PRINCETON AND MORA. SOME
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

MNZ091-130230-
/O.UPG.KMPX.WW.Y.0005.060313T0000Z-060313T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KMPX.WS.W.0002.060313T0000Z-060313T1800Z/
MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...FAIRMONT
1230 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM
CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 12 PM CST MONDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR THE FAIRMONT AREA. SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW PROBLEMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AS NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH.

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW...
SLEET...AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.

$$

MNZ041-042-047-048-130230-
/O.EXB.KMPX.WW.Y.0005.060313T0000Z-060313T1800Z/
DOUGLAS-TODD-STEVENS-POPE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...LONG PRAIRIE...MORRIS...
GLENWOOD
1230 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
12 PM CST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 12 PM CST MONDAY. 

SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH 3
TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED NEAR MORRIS...ALEXANDRIA...AND LITTLE
FALLS. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$

MNZ084-085-092-093-WIZ026-028-130230-
/O.EXT.KMPX.WW.Y.0005.060313T0000Z-060313T1800Z/
WASECA-STEELE-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASECA...OWATONNA...BLUE EARTH...
ALBERT LEA...DURAND...PEPIN...EAU CLAIRE...ALTOONA
1230 PM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 12 PM CST MONDAY...

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS
EVENING TO 12 PM CST MONDAY. 

SNOW...OCCASIONALLY MIXED WITH SLEET...IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING ALL SNOW THIS
EVENING. A TOTAL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR
FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR
SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

$$
SCHMIT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
933 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.UPDATE...
MUCH OF THEN 00Z NAM HAS COME IN AND IS STILL TRENDING TOWARD WHAT
THE GFS HAD BEEN SUGGESTING THE LAST FEW RUNS. IN FACT..THE NAM
IS SUGGESTING THAT THE BETTER MID LEVEL /700-600/ TEMP GRADIENT
MAY BE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO CENTRAL MN. DPROG/DT ON THE
NAM IS ALSO IS A TOUCH SLOWER AND ALLOWING A BIT BETTER DIFLUENT
UPPER FLOW TO DEVELOP. BEST QG CONV IN 850-500 LAYER STILL OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MN THOUGH. WILL NOT CHANGE THE WATCH AT THIS TIME
BUT WILL EXPAND CATEGORICAL POPS MORE INTO CENTRAL MN.

SHOULD BE PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH GOOD
SUBSCIDENCE ESPECIALLY EAST AND UPDATED FOR THIS EARLIER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006/

DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHERN MN ATTM WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
PUSHING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CWA. CLOUDINESS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE DAKOTAS. MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL VARY ON THE DETAILS FOR
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF HERE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE NAM HAS TRENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS
WITH BRINGING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION INTO FAR SOUTHERN MN AND
WEST CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 600-700MB LAYER. HOWEVER...THE
STRUCTURE OF THE 700MB LOW AND ITS MOVEMENT ALMOST DUE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IA JUST DOES NOT LOOK RIGHT. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS THE 700MB LOW MOVING MORE ACROSS SE MN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BEST MID LEVEL RESPONSE TO THE FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPING FROM
REDWOOD FALLS TO THE TWIN CITIES AND SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL WI BY MONDAY MORNING. COLLABORATION WITH OTHER
OFFICES WAS TO PUT MUCH OF THE WEIGHT BEHIND THE GFS AND ISSUE
WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 18Z NAM NOW
COMING IN AND THE 700 MB LOW TRACK HAS CHANGED AND NOW MOVES
ACROSS SE MN SUNDAY NIGHT. 18Z NAM -FN VECTOR DIVERGENCE IN THE
600-700MB LAYER IS QUITE STRONG FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH WEST
CENTRAL WI SUNDAY NIGHT AND ACTUALLY COVERS THE WATCH AREA QUITE
NICELY. CAME UP WITH AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE WATCH AREA
WITH NO TROUBLE BASED ON HPC QPF AND ACTUALLY HAVE SOME 7 TO 8
INCH AMOUNTS FROM MANKATO THROUGH RED WING TO EAU CLAIRE. GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE NAM AND GFS THAT THE SYSTEM ENDS RATHER QUICKLY
MONDAY MORNING. SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY POSSIBLE TUESDAY OVER
THE NE HALF OF THE CWA AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES SE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

LONGER TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

MID/UPPER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECT PROGGED 850 MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN -10C AND -15C TO RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL DRIVE A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN CONUS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE PLACEMENT OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...THE
AFOREMENTIONED MODELS DRIVE IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NE/IA/KS/MO
BORDERS. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 30-40 PERCENT FOR SNOW ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA BETWEEN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-
     RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-
     WASHINGTON-WATONWAN COUNTY(IES).

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-
     ST. CROIX COUNTY(IES).

&&

JPR/RAH/LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
246 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
121315-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
246 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM NEW ULM...TO THE TWIN CITIES METRO...TO BLOOMER WISCONSIN.
LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA MAY SEE 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW BY MIDDAY
MONDAY.

MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LS