Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 230812
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
312 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

MNC073-230822-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-060823T0845Z/
LAC QUI PARLE MN-
312 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR LAC QUI PARLE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4521 9593 4518 9613 4503 9591 4494 9574
      4498 9556 4518 9556

$$

MNC023-151-230845-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-060823T0845Z/
SWIFT MN-CHIPPEWA MN-
312 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT 
FOR CHIPPEWA AND SWIFT COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

AT 309 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MILAN...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MADISON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MONTEVIDEO AND APPLETON.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4521 9593 4518 9613 4503 9591 4494 9574
      4498 9556 4518 9556

$$

MTF

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 230835
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
333 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

MNC151-230843-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-060823T0845Z/
SWIFT MN-
333 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SWIFT COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4515 9584 4503 9591 4494 9574 4494 9552
      4498 9545 4515 9544

$$

MNC023-230845-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-060823T0845Z/
CHIPPEWA MN-
333 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

AT 330 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED 4 MILES NORTH OF WATSON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MONTEVIDEO.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4515 9584 4503 9591 4494 9574 4494 9552
      4498 9545 4515 9544

$$

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 230843
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
342 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

MNC023-230852-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-060823T0845Z/
CHIPPEWA MN-
342 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA EXPIRES AT 345 AM CDT...

THE SEVERE STORM HAS WEAKENED AND WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CHIPPEWA 
COUNTY. HOWEVER...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE 
AREA...REMAIN ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 4515 9584 4503 9591 4494 9574 4494 9552
      4498 9545 4515 9544

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
339 PM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS ATTM IN
RESPONSE TO A CONFLUENT JET PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKE
REGION INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THE GFS AND NAM/WRF HAVE BOTH BEEN
QUITE ERRATIC ON PLACEMENT OF VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES AS A RESULT
OF LARGE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS. WE ENDED UP TURNING TO THE
NGM FOR A SIGNIFICANT PART OF OUR NWP GUIDANCE. THE CONSISTENT
FEATURE OF ALL MODEL RUNS FROM MONDAY ON HAS BEEN THE EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH A 45 TO 55 KNOT SPEED
CORE. THE LOW LEVEL JET INITIALLY IS ORIENTED SOUTH TO
NORTH OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA..BUT BECOMES TILTED INTO A WEST-
SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST ORIENTATION TOWARDS SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW LEVEL JET IS SEEN DRIVING A LARGE FLUX OF
MOISTURE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA COUNTIES EARLY THIS
EVENING...SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG BOW ECHO WHICH WILL CROSS OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. PWAT VALUES
INCREASE FROM THEIR CURRENT VALUES OF 0.50 TO 0.60 INCHES TO 1.75
INCHES OVERNIGHT...A REMARKABLE INCREASE.

HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS HAVE BEEN
WORKED INTO OUR GRIDS FOR SUCH AN OUTCOME. VARIOUS MODEL OUTPUT
FROM 12Z AND 18Z TODAY SUGGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR (I.E. ZERO TO 6
KM) WILL PEAK AT 55 TO 65 KNOTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z WEDNESDAY OVER
OUR EAST CENTRAL MN COUNTIES INTO A FEW OF OUR WISCONSIN COUNTIES.
WHAT IS EVEN MORE IMPRESSIVE IS THAT 40 KNOTS OF THIS SHEAR IS
DIAGNOSED TO BE IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER. ALL OF THIS SUGGESTS A VERY
FORMIDABLE BOW ECHO WHICH WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE FASTER THAN THE
MEAN WIND SPEED AND FEATURE WIDESPREAD DESTRUCTIVE WIND POTENTIAL.

FEEL THAT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL REALLY DROP OFF AFTER
MIDMORNING WEDNESDAY AS AIRMASS GETS WORKED OVER...BUT WE CARRY
POPS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THIS FORECAST SEGMENT IN DEFERENCE TO
OUR NEIGHBORS.

LONGER TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION AMONG MODELS AND DPROG OF GFS AT
LEAST IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONGER TERM.  PRECIPITATION EVENT
SHOULD BE NEARING ITS END FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY AS TROUGH MOVES
THRU.  GFS LOOKS QUITE STRANGE FOR AUGUST WITH DEEP CLOSED LOW
MEANDERING EAST ALONG CANADIAN BORDER EARLY IN WEEKEND...A PATTERN
MORE TYPICAL OF LATE SEPTEMBER.  SHOULD SEE A DRYING PERIOD
BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO OUR WEST

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

WET/BAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
532 AM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
231100-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
532 AM CDT TUE AUG 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...MAINLY WEST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR FROM MORA TO LAKEVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NOCTURNAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME ORGANIZED INTO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...AND
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH THIS ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH FRIDAY. MONITOR
FUTURE OUTLOOKS FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS ON SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
131 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

MNZ042-043-048-049-230730-
MORRISON-POPE-STEARNS-TODD-
131 AM CDT WED AUG 23 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR TODD...MORRISON...STEARNS AND POPE
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM CDT...

AT 124 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LONG PRAIRIE TO 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAUK CENTRE TO 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GLENWOOD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR LITTLE FALLS BY 145 AM.
  NEAR ALBANY BY 155 AM.
  NEAR PAYNESVILLE BY 205 AM.