Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 130119
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
818 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

MNC023-073-149-151-130145-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-060813T0145Z/
STEVENS MN-SWIFT MN-LAC QUI PARLE MN-CHIPPEWA MN-
818 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI PARLE...SWIFT  AND STEVENS COUNTIES IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

AT 814 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES 
NORTHWEST OF DANVERS TO DAWSON...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. THE 
STORMS HAVE WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MINUTES...BUT STILL 
REMAIN CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE MADISON...DAWSON AND APPLETON.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4546 9579 4551 9601 4517 9611 4501 9632
      4484 9596 4513 9570

$$

KAT

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 130134
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
833 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

MNC023-073-149-151-130143-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0159.000000T0000Z-060813T0145Z/
STEVENS MN-SWIFT MN-LAC QUI PARLE MN-CHIPPEWA MN-
833 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI PARLE...
SWIFT  AND STEVENS COUNTIES IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS CANCELLED...

RADAR INDICATED THAT THE STORM HAD WEAKENED TO BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. 
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO 
LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT FOR RELAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY 
MORNING FOR CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4546 9579 4551 9601 4517 9611 4501 9632
      4484 9596 4513 9570

$$

KAT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
311 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
12Z WATER VAPOR SUGGESTED THAT THE INITIALIZATION OF THE 500 MB
TROUGH IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WAS TOO FAR EAST ON THE NAM...CLOSER
TO THE 12Z GFS INITIALIZATION. ESSENTIALLY BIASED FORECAST TOWARD
THE GFS FOR THE ENTIRE SHORT TERM PACKAGE. THAT HAVING BEEN
SAID...USED THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE FROM THE NAM AND GFS FOR TIMING
MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
ALSO...GAVE A LOT OF CONSIDERATION TO THE SREF PROBABILITY OF
GREATER THAN .25 INCH IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. IN THE TONIGHT
PERIOD...THERE IS AN AREA OF 850 MB THETA E ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF
THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA...ERGO THE POPS...THOUGH SMALLER THAN
THOSE TO THE NORTHWEST.

NAM AND GFS SOUNDINGS VIEWED IN BUFKIT DEPICTED LONG SKINNY
CAPES...A HEAVY RAIN SIGNAL...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRESENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
FURTHER SUGGESTS ONLY MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY BUT AN ABUNDANCE
OF MOISTURE...INDEED PRECIPITATABLE WATER VALUES EXCEED 150 PERCENT
OF NORMAL MOST AREAS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SO DID MENTION HEAVY RAIN
IN WEST CENTRAL MN. HOWEVER...THE 3 HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR
THIS DROUGHTY PART OF MN IS CLOSE TO 4 INCHES...AND THE SOIL TYPE IS
SANDY LOAM ACCORDING TO OUR NEIGHBORING RFC...THEREFORE HELD OFF ON
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE IF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES OCCUR OVER THE URBAN AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL MN. OF COURSE...THE
NUMBER OF URBAN AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL MN IS SMALL.

WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH BY 12Z MONDAY...THE DRY WEATHER
RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY BASED ON
A MIX OF MOS NUMBERS. ALSO...CLOUDS ON SUNDAY...AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MONDAY...SHOULD SUPPORT THESE LOWER HIGHS.

LONGER TERM...TUESDAY TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED LOOKS ON TRACK WITH FLUSHING OF MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS AND A PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC
PATTERN SUGGESTS RETURN FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING PROMPTING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF
TSTMS BEYOND THURSDAY IS RISKY AND CHOSE NOT TO REMOVE
POP CHANCES FOR FRI. COULD BE A FRONT STALLED OVER CWA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK AS MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ABOUT NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER
UPPER MIDWEST. NO REASON TO FUSS WITH TEMPERATURES AT END OF
FORECAST PERIOD AS THEY ARE CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

NAISTAT/CME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
130915-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
412 AM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS. THEY WILL ADVANCE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND
THEN PUSH ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NEAR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.
HOWEVER A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN WESTERN MINNESOTA. SOME HEAVY
RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IN WESTERN
MINNESOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE IN WESTERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING
REACHING THE ST CROIX RIVER SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM SOME
OF THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
737 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

MNZ047-048-054>056-064-130130-
CHIPPEWA-LAC QUI PARLE-POPE-STEVENS-SWIFT-YELLOW MEDICINE-
737 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR POPE...STEVENS...SWIFT...LAC QUI
PARLE...CHIPPEWA AND YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

AT 736 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CHOKIO TO
MARIETTA...AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN LAC QUI PARLE...NORTHERN YELLOW MEDICINE...SOUTHERN
STEVENS...SOUTHWESTERN POPE...SWIFT AND WESTERN CHIPPEWA COUNTIES...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

KAT