Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 291026
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
526 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

WIC005-107-291045-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-060729T1045Z/
BARRON WI-RUSK WI-
526 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 AM CDT
FOR RUSK AND BARRON COUNTIES...

AT 524 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 25 MILES
NORTHEAST OF INGRAM TO 6 MILES SOUTH OF MIKANA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WEYERHAEUSER...RICE LAKE...
LADYSMITH...CUMBERLAND...CHETEK...CAMERON...BRUCE AND BARRON.

LAT...LON 4563 9075 4568 9217 4526 9203 4540 9069

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
438 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
OVER THE SHORT TERM...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE TO THE NORTH OF
THE MPX CWA WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY PASSING ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN MN COUNTIES. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS LIKELY
OVER THESE COUNTIES...ALONG WITH A PORTION OF OUR WISCONSIN
COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FOCUSED ALONG A WELL-DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE NEAR KRAP...EASTWARD THROUGH KSTC AND INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN.

THE HEAT AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA WITH
THE HIGHEST MAX TEMPERATURES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
BOTH THE GFS40 AND NAM PUSH AN EXTREMELY WARM LOWER TROP THERMAL
RIDGE EASTWARD FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY
MONDAY WITH THE GFS40 DERIVED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOWING A
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED INVERSION BETWEEN 650 MB AND 725 MB. THIS
FEATURE WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR YIELDING MUCH OF THE
DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX READINGS INTO MONDAY THROUGH TWO PROCESSES.
PROCESS ONE CAN BE DESCRIBED AS AN EFFECTIVE RESTRAINT OF VERTICAL
MIXING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS DUE TO THE STABLE LAYER BETWEEN
650 MB AND 725 MB. THIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE SECOND PROCESS IS DUE TO THE EXTREMELY
HIGH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS THERMAL RIDGE WILL HELP KEEP
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 WHICH WILL MEAN A
WARMUP TO NEAR 100 WILL BE FAIRLY EASY TO COME BY EVEN INTO OUR
WISCONSIN COUNTIES. VARIOUS ADVISORIES AND WATCHES ARE POSTED FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THIS SUMMER HEAT WAVE.

LONGER TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NE TO SW ORIENTED COOL FRONT WILL BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE CWA
TUESDAY. UPPER FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL...SUGGESTING THAT FRONT WILL SLOW ITS PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT LINES UP WITH THE UPPER FLOW. LATEST GFS RUN IS SLIGHTLY
SLOWER...WITH ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM 6 TO 12 HRS SLOWER. TENDING TO
FAVOR THIS SLOW PROGRESSION GIVEN ORIENTATION OF UPPER FLOW AND
SIGNIFICANT HEAT THAT WILL BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. H5 SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE PICTURE AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE HELPING THE
FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE CWA BY LATER WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF PRECIP
CHANCES BECOMES PROBLEMATIC WITH FRONTAL POSITION AND SPEED YET TO
BE RESOLVED. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE ATTM WITH H5 TROF PROGGED TO CATCH UP TO FRONT AND TRANSIT
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY LLVL FLOW RETURN WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC
COOL FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE TROF. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S. UPPER RIDGING RETURNS BRIEFLY THURSDAY BEFORE
MORE ZONAL UPPER FLOW TAKES OVER SOON AFTER. SFC HIGH PUSHES FAR
ENUF EAST THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA
BUT IT LOOKS AS THOUGH RETURN OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL LAG AS
MOISTURE OVER THE LOWER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE CUTOFF.
GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON SFC LOW POSITIONED ACROSS MT/WY WITH WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY...WITH HIGHER DEW POINT
AIR RETURNING SATURDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
     GOODHUE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-NICOLLET-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
     RICE-SCOTT-SIBLEY-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE
     COUNTY(IES).

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR HENNEPIN-RAMSEY
     COUNTY(IES).

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR HENNEPIN-RAMSEY COUNTY(IES).

WI...NONE.
&&

WET/MDB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
831 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
291115-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
831 PM CDT FRI JUL 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND FOR A PORTION OF MINNESOTA...GENERALLY NORTH
OF A LINE FROM APPLETON TO ST PAUL. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THOUGH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE EAST AND MAY
IMPACT MINNESOTA PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY 100 AM. WITH
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST WISONCSIN...THE THREAT WILL
LAST FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT FOR WISCONSIN COUNTIES IN THE OUTLOOK
AREA.

IN ADDITION...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH IN AND AROUND
THE TWIN CITIES TONIGHT. WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT...A
HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST
NPW PRODUCT FOR MORE INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S...MAYBE EVEN 100.
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED TRIPLE DIGITS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA...POSSIBLY
REACHING 110 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
SUNDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY COUNTIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS
IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREA FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE HEAT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH
MAY BE SEVERE...WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS FOR DETAILS ON
THESE MIDWEEK SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING TONIGHT. ACTIVATION MAY ALSO BE NEEDED IN CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...NAMELY AFTER 100 AM.

MTF/TDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1208 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1206 AM     HAIL             8 N BRUCE               45.57N 91.27W
07/29/2006  E0.88 INCH       RUSK               WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MTF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
212 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

MNZ042-043-290815-
MORRISON-TODD-
212 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR TODD AND MORRISON COUNTIES UNTIL 315
AM CDT...

AT 211 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF
MOTLEY TO 7 MILES WEST OF EAGLE BEND...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30
MPH.

WINDS AROUND 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN MORRISON AND TODD COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

JPR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
348 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     TSTM WND GST     STAPLES                 46.36N 94.80W
07/29/2006  M60 MPH          TODD               MN   AWOS

&&

MTF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
438 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

WIZ014>016-291045-
BARRON-POLK-RUSK-
438 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR POLK...BARRON AND RUSK COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

AT 433 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HAYWARD TO 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF SPOONER TO 6 MILES EAST OF SIREN...
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. AREAS UNDER THE
GREATEST THREAT WOULD BE RICE LAKE AND LADYSMITH.

PEOPLE IN BARRON...NORTHEASTERN POLK AND RUSK COUNTIES...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

JPR