Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Twin Cities, MN

000 
WWUS53 KMPX 191223
SVSMPX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
721 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

MNC173-191245-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0100.000000T0000Z-060719T1245Z/
YELLOW MEDICINE MN-
721 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CDT
FOR YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTY...

AT 718 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A PAIR OF SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORMS...BOTH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING 
WINDS.  ONE STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ST LEO...OR ABOUT 
25 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GRANITE FALLS.  ANOTHER STORM WAS NEAR 
CLARKFIELD...OR ABOUT 15 MILES WEST OF GRANITE FALLS.  BOTH STORMS 
WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.  

LAT...LON 4479 9621 4464 9621 4456 9541 4476 9555

$$

TDK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
425 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEMATIC AS COUPLE OF SCENARIOS COULD OCCUR
CONVECTION-WISE. GFS HAS BEEN MOST CONSISTENT WITH QPF BULLS-EYE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MN INTO WRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTH/CENTRAL SODAK SHOULD MOVE INTO WEST
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MN THIS MORNING WITH POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 850MB LIS LOWER TO MINUS 6 TO MINUS 8. THIS
COMPLEX WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING AND FIRST
THOUGHTS ARE THAT IT WILL WEAKEN.  BELIEVE REDEVELOPMENT OR
INTENSIFICATION WILL TAKE HOLD OVER EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY WELL BE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT DROPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN AND WILL STRENGTHEN WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MN/IOWA BORDER.  THIS PLAYS OUT ON BOTH
THE GFS AND NAM/WRF.  AT ANY RATE...SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL BE THERE
AND ANY FOCUS FOR TORNADO FORMATION WILL LAY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY
SETS UP THIS AFTERNOON.  SPC MODERATE RISK IS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND PERHAPS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MN. 850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS QUITE STRONG AND DO INCREASE OVER THE
AREA MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
CENTRTAL MN INTO SOUTHWEST WI THIS EVENING.  HIGH PWS WARRANT
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN GRIDS AND HWO...BUT WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY WATCH AT THIS TIME. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH ABOUT 09Z TONIGHT.
EVENING COMMUTE MAY BE INTERESTING OVER EAST CENTRAL MN. DRYING WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING SOUTH.
OUTSIDE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN FRIDAY.
WILL LEAVE THIS IN FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE...COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

LONGER TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
GFS ENSEMBLE NOT AVAILABLE FOR THIS TIME FRAME...BUT OPERATIONAL GFS
INDICATES A SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW GIVING A GLANCING BLOW TO
MN/WI ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER COMPARED
TO NAM AT 84 HOURS AS WELL AS UKMET AND ECMWF. GFS...UK AND ECMWF
ALL SHOW A BETTER SHORT WAVE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WILL DROP
MENTION OF THE SLGT CHC IN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY...BUT ADD IT FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT GOES BY... LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE
ENCROACHES A LITTLE MORE INTO THE REGION...SO WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
WX AND INDICATE TEMPS WARMING A BIT ACROSS A LARGER AREA.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

DWE/TDK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
454 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
201000-
DOUGLAS-TODD-MORRISON-MILLE LACS-KANABEC-STEVENS-POPE-STEARNS-
BENTON-SHERBURNE-ISANTI-CHISAGO-LAC QUI PARLE-SWIFT-CHIPPEWA-
KANDIYOHI-MEEKER-WRIGHT-HENNEPIN-ANOKA-RAMSEY-WASHINGTON-
YELLOW MEDICINE-RENVILLE-MCLEOD-SIBLEY-CARVER-SCOTT-DAKOTA-
REDWOOD-BROWN-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-RICE-GOODHUE-WATONWAN-BLUE EARTH-
WASECA-STEELE-MARTIN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-POLK-BARRON-RUSK-
ST. CROIX-PIERCE-DUNN-PEPIN-EAU CLAIRE-
454 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY...EXITING SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AS THEY MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST CENTRAL INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND A PART OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...AS THE
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...INTO A PORTION OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY AND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING.