Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
350 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM JUST SOUTH OF KMOB TO JUST N OF KPNS TO NEAR
KDTS...PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CWFA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT DEWPTS RANGED FROM
65 TO 70 WITH CAPES RANGING FROM 200 TO 600 J/KG WELL OFFSHORE. SFC
WINDS HAVE VEERED DURING THE LAST 4 HOURS REDUCING HELICITY VALUES
SIGNIFICANTLY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM 60M2/S2 WELL OFFSHORE TO 160
M2/S2 OVER EXTREME NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. EXPECT WINDS TO
BACK OVER LAND MAINLY THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING DUE TO DIURNAL
EFFECTS OR RIDGING TO THE NE SHIFTING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS WIND SHIFT SHOULD KEEP 0 TO 3
KM VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES TO MARGINAL LEVELS LATER TODAY AS MAIN
COMPLEX OF TS OR FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST
RUC AND GFS SOLUTIONS DEPICT SFC BASE CAPES TO INCREASE LATER THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FROM HEATING AFTER SUNRISE...POSSIBLY INCREASING TO
1000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE MAIN COMPLEX OF TS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA THIS MORNING...THEN MOVING OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT LATEST
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND RUC DATA SHOWS H8 35 TO 50 KT JET TO BEGIN
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE CWFA BY 15Z THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO
INCREASED LIFT OR FORCING POSSIBLY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW SEVERE TS LATER THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA. H8 JET SLIDES TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST BY THIS
AFTERNOON AFFECTING MOSTLY INLAND PORTIONS OF THE CWFA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FOR TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM THE WEST
TO EAST BEGINNING LATE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE THIS EVENING MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA. WILL
USE THE CURRENT MAV MOS FOR TEMPS THROUGH TONIGHT. /32

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NOT TOO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  WILL HAVE SOME LAYER LIFTED CLOUDINESS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN SKIES CLEAR WITH
DAYTIME HEATING.  THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDS GOING NEAR CALM INLAND AND WITH LIGHT WINDS NEARER
THE COAST.  SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD BUT LEAVE A WEDGE ACROSS THE AREA MAKING BOTH NIGHTS
COOL WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES NEARER THE COAST DUE TO MORE MIXING.
STRONG MID LEVEL ENERGY ADVANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CANADIAN
PROVINCES AND NORTHERN PLAINS TO QUEBEC/ONTARIO ON TUESDAY WHILE THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SENDS A TRAILING WEAK FRONT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.  THE FRONT STALLS NORTH OF THE REGION WHILE
ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LATTER FEATURE DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW ON THE FRONT OVER
TENNESSEE WHICH LIFTS QUICKLY TO THE NEW ENGLAND AREA AND DRIVES THE
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY.  WILL STAY WITH SMALL
POPS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ELEVATED OVERRUNNING FLOW WHICH WILL GENERATE A
FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN.  SMALL POPS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM DURING THE PERIOD TO ABOUT FIVE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN RETURN TO NEAR OR JUST
BELOW NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON TODAY THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AND BUILD
SLIGHTLY...BEGINNING OVER THE AL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND OVER
THE FL WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND VELOCITIES WILL RANGE FROM 15
TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND 20 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT MOSTLY TONIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD...RANGING FROM
5 TO 9 FT THROUGH 12Z SAT...THEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGH SAT
AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL REBUILD SLIGHTLY SAT NIGHT
DUE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE ON SUN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER COASTAL AREAS OF
MS...AL AND NWFL. SFC RIDGE SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY ON MON SETTING UP AN
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MON AFT BECOMING MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT DUE TO DRAINAGE EFFECTS FROM THE SFC RIDGE TO THE NE.
WINDS SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS SUN THROUGH
TUE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS EACH MORNING DUE TO DRAINAGE. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SUNDAY AS DRY AIR AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RESULT IN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  51  72  48 / 100  10  00  05
PENSACOLA   79  56  73  49 / 100  20  05  05
DESTIN      76  57  73  53 / 100  20  05  05
EVERGREEN   76  48  70  43 / 100  20  00  05
WAYNESBORO  75  47  69  42 / 100  20  00  05
CAMDEN      77  48  69  43 / 100  20  00  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     LOWER BALDWIN...AND LOWER MOBILE.
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...AND COASTAL
     SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 60
     NM...MOBILE BAY.

&&

29/EVERSOLE
32/ESBENSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
515 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
282300-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
515 AM CDT FRI OCT 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT GULF
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO VEERING WINDS AND
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FROM THIS
PATTERN SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA INCLUDING THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVER NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND REMAINDER OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN
OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL ALSO GIVE WAY TO DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO A
STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS OR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT.

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