Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 091514
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1013 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

MSC039-091523-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-060509T1530Z/
GEORGE MS-
1013 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GEORGE COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF GEORGE COUNTY AND INTO 
MOBILE COUNTY...THUS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR GEORGE 
COUNTY IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3097 8833 3077 8837 3073 8803 3095 8800

$$

ALC097-091530-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0096.000000T0000Z-060509T1530Z/
MOBILE AL-
1013 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 AM CDT FOR 
MOBILE COUNTY...

AT 1008 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LOTT AND
COLEMAN DAIRY ROADS...OR ABOUT 18 MILES EAST OF LUCEDALE...MOVING
EAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  KUSHLA AND OAK GROVE BY 1020 AM CDT
  CELESTE BY 1025 AM CDT
  I65 AND AL 158...SARALAND...SATSUMA AND EIGHT MILE BY 1030 AM CDT

LAT...LON 3097 8833 3077 8837 3073 8803 3095 8800

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...MODEL DISCREPANCIES ARE SURE
CREATING A DIFFICULTY FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL REGION...AND WAITING
TO ANALYZE THE 06Z DATA DID NOT HELP THE SITUATION ANY.  GFS
CONTINUES TO HIT THE AREA HARD WITH POPS NOW UP TO 100% ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AND QPF BULLSEYE UP TO 7 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY. NOW WHILE SUCH HIGH NUMBERS ARE UNLIKELY TO
HAPPEN...THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FROM THE RUC AND WRF THAT THINGS
COULD GET ACTIVE AGAIN TODAY. HIGHER POPS WILL BE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH SCATTERED FAR NORTH. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOW MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EARLY...AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING OF DISTURBANCE SHOULD TRIGGER CONVECTION
EARLIER TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. EXACT POSITION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY IS HARD TO PIN DOWN WITH OUTFLOWS SCATTERED ACROSS THE
REGION. SHOULD GET A BETTER PLACEMENT AFTER SUNRISE...THIS WILL HELP
US FOCUS ON WHERE THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF WILL OCCUR. /22

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...RIDGE WILL REBUILD IN THE
WAKE OF THE DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LONG WAVE
TROUGH GETS CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...AND SURFACE FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AREA REMAINS IN DEEP SOUTHWEST MOIST
FLOW  (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES) ON WEDNESDAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW
PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES.  THE COLD FRONT IS STILL FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION ON WEDNESDAY...AND THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS AREA IS STILL OUTLOOKED BY SPC. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH PW VALUES
DROPPING TO NEAR ONE-HALF INCH.  THIS WILL LEAD A RETURN TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  GFS
BRINGS NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP TO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATER TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. A STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL BUILD IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH THIS HAVE MADE UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND SEAS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY...ALLOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO INVADE THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH.  FORECAST PERIODS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS AS WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES TO LOWER INTO THE 30S. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      85  71  87  68 /  80  40  30  30
PENSACOLA   82  71  85  69 /  80  60  30  30
DESTIN      80  72  81  71 /  70  50  30  30
EVERGREEN   84  66  87  66 /  70  50  40  50
WAYNESBORO  85  68  86  65 /  70  30  60  70
CAMDEN      84  67  87  65 /  40  30  60  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED DATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-102300-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
545 AM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AT THIS TIME THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACED SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TONIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AT THIS TIME THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA UNDER A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED FOR
FURTHER UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.