Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 202000
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
159 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

ALC023-202015-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-060320T2015Z/
CHOCTAW AL-
159 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 215 PM CST FOR
NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY...

AT 157 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PUSHMATAHA...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF BUTLER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  JACHIN BY 210 PM CST
  INDIAN SPRINGS...DEAS...ROBJOHN AND EDNA BY 215 PM CST

LAT...LON 3230 8838 3217 8835 3213 8834 3221 8801
      3231 8802

$$

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 202010
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
209 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

ALC023-202019-
/O.CAN.KMOB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-060320T2015Z/
CHOCTAW AL-
209 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CHOCTAW COUNTY 
IS CANCELLED...

LAT...LON 3230 8838 3217 8835 3213 8834 3221 8801
      3231 8802

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1200 PM CST MON MAR 20 2006

.UPDATE...CURRENTLY WATCHING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. SPC
ISSUED TOR WATCH #102 WHICH BUMPS UP AGAINST OUR SE MISSISSIPPI
ZONES. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA OUTLINED IN A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS ON THE 1630Z DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WARM FRONT HAS MOVED
INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FROM NORTH OF KMOB TO NEAR KCEW. THE WARM FRONT THEN MOVES WESTWARD
TO A SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN SE TEXAS. JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS WARM
FRONT MOVES WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT STILL APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 43 HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SEEING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING ALL OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
MORNING SOUNDINGS AND CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATING 0-3KM
HELICITY VALUES RUNNING IN THE 300-500 RANGE. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
IS THE INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES NOW AROUND 500 J/KG IN SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND SE MISSISSIPPI WITH VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG IN
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. MORNING 12Z SOUNDING FROM KLIX INDICATES A
RATHER STRONG CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 800 MB WITH A WARM PROFILE FROM
800 TO 650 MB WHICH IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. AS SFC LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON...WE EXPECT THE WARM FRONT
TO CONTINUE SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE BETTER SFC BASED INSTABILITY
WILL BE FOUND. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE
FARTHER EAST INTO ALABAMA WITH THE LOSS HEATING AND UPPER DYNAMICS
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL AWAIT AN 18Z SOUNDING FROM KLIX TO SEE
WHETHER THE CAPPING INVERSION HAS WEAKENED WHICH MAY ALLOW SOME
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AND THESE WOULD HAVE
THE BETTER CHANCE OF BEING TORNADIC IN ADDITION TO STORMS THAT MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT.

UPDATED ZONES ALREADY SENT. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POP GRIDS TO BETTER
MATCH THE TRENDS ON RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY.

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND
     INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES:COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM...
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20
     NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM
     20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

13/CULLEN
05/GARMON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR ADJUSTMENT TO MODERATE RISK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
745 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-211200-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
745 AM CST MON MAR 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN AND
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS FURTHER
TO THE NORTH...THE AREA SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AND TRACK ALONG THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA BY MID AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AROUND MID AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND THEN SOUTHEAST OF I-65 LATER
IN THE EVENING.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY WARM AND MOIST LOWER ATMOSPHERE COMBINED
WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. THE GREATEST CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR
NORTHWEST OF I-65 BETWEEN 3 AND 9 PM. THIS IS WHERE THE MOST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ALONG WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGHEST
WIND SHEAR VALUES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED THE
ENTIRE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH A MODERATE RISK NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL
PERRY COUNTY MISSISSIPPI THROUGH NORTHWEST WASHINGTON COUNTY ALABAMA
TO NORTHEAST CHOCTAW COUNTY ALABAMA. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS ON
THIS DEVELOPING SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE BEACHES OF THE
ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.

STRONG ONSHORE WINDS WILL PROVIDE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR
SMALL CRAFT OVER THE MARINE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL
MAKE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE MARINE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BRING MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY AIR MASS...
SUNNY SKIES...AND WINDY CONDITIONS...WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF
WILDFIRES.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE
WEATHER...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF I-65.