Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 032345
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
541 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

MSC153-040030-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-060204T0030Z/
WAYNE MS-
541 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR WAYNE
COUNTY...

AT 540 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GOLF BALL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR EUCUTTA...OR ABOUT 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAUREL...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  8 MILES NORTH OF WHISTLER BY 545 PM CST
  HIWANNEE...BOICE AND 9 MILES NORTH OF WOODWARDS BY 600 PM CST
  GRETNA BY 615 PM CST

A SECOND SEVERE STORM WAS NOTED ABOUT 7 MILES WEST OF 
STRENGTHFORD...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  THIS STORM ALSO HAS THE 
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL BETWEEN THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND 
GOLFBALLS...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AS IT 
MOVES ACROSS THE STRENGTHFORD AREA THROUGH 555 PM.  THIS STORM WILL 
APPROACH THE WAYNESBORO AND WINCHESTER AREAS BETWEEN 605 PM AND 
620 PM.  

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3182 8892 3144 8892 3148 8845 3189 8848

$$

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 040024
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
624 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

MSC153-040030-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-060204T0030Z/
WAYNE MS-
624 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 630 PM CST FOR WAYNE
COUNTY...

AT 623 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR DETECTED A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
DENHAM...OR ABOUT 6 MILES EAST OF WAYNESBORO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3182 8892 3144 8892 3148 8845 3189 8848

$$

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 040034
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
632 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

MSC153-040042-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0036.000000T0000Z-060204T0030Z/
WAYNE MS-
632 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WAYNE COUNTY WAS ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 630 PM CST...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF WAYNE COUNTY.  AT 630 
PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR STILL SHOWED A LINE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM EXTREME NORTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY TO 
NEAR SMITHTOWN.  THESE STORMS ARE MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THEY ARE 
STILL LIKELY PRODUCING SOME SMALL HAIL AND SUDDEN WIND GUSTS AROUND 
45 MPH AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN WAYNE COUNTY.  

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CST
FRIDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

LAT...LON 3182 8892 3144 8892 3148 8845 3189 8848

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

.SHORT TERM...CURRENTLY WATCHING A STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS OUT
AHEAD OF AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL LA
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG S/WV DRIVING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF A
LONGWAVE TROF OVER EASTERN STATES. A DEVELOPING SFC LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL LA WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE SFC WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW NE TO NEAR MGM AND AUBURN AND
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED
INTO THE LOWER 70S WHERE SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT. MOISTURE RECOVERY
IS LIMITING SFC BASED INSTABILITY AS DEWPOINTS VALUES HAVE BEEN HELD
INTO THE 50S. LOW 60 DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY NOW COMING INTO COASTAL
ALABAMA AND FLORIDA. WITH THE TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 6
PM THIS EVENING AND LATER...INSOLATION WILL ALSO BE ON THE DECREASE
AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...AS STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA...EXPECT INSTABILITY VALUES TO BE ON THE
INCREASE ESPECIALLY IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. WV
IMAGERY INDICATES THE S/W IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF AND
SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WOULD INDICATE THE GREATEST FORCING
WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE ALSO ALIGNED
THE POPS WITH THIS IN MIND...LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO TO LOW
END SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST.

VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES THE LINE IS TRYING TO BACKBUILD TO SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING EAST AND
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER SYSTEM AND SFC LOW LIFT NORTHEASTWARD.
BELIEVE THE MAIN THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL
WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS WHERE STORMS CAN BECOME
SFC BASED...AS HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS CENTRAL MS. THE BEST CHANCES
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF A HATTIESBURG TO EVERGREEN LINE.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE AN OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE SFC WINDS REMAIN BACKED. WILL MENTION SEVERE
WORDING IN ALL AREAS WITH THE MOST EMPHASIS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ALMOST OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. AND
AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES TO THE EAST...STRONG
DOWNGLIDE...INCREASING COND PRES DEFICITS AND COLD ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN IN ERNEST. THUS EXPECT SKIES TO RAPIDLY CLEAR AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH ONLY SCT CLOUDS IN THE MORNING. WINTER RETURNS FOR SATURDAY AS
STRONG CAA WILL OVERCOME CLEAR SKIES TO HOLD HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 50S
IN MOST PLACES WITH A STRONG NORTHWEST WIND MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH LOWS FALLING TO
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN
ALONG WITH INCR CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER S/WV AND SFC LOW THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST BREAKS DOWN TEMPORARILY AS DEEP LOW MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PAC
NW. THIS WILL ALLOW ZONAL FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL
US. A PIECE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW LOOKS TO BREAK OFF AN BE
SHUNTED SOUTH AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHEAST. THIS S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW THEN TRACK EASTWARD
IN THE UPPER FLOW. THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW...BUT CONSENSUS POINTS TO ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
WHICH PLACES THE GULF IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER THE
NARROW TIME WINDOW FOR AIRMASS MODIFICATION ACROSS THE GULF
...ESPECIALLY IN LIGHT OF SHARP DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS
SYSTEM...SHOULD KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. AND HAVE
REMOVED THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY IN LINE WITH SPC
OUTLOOK.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE WESTERN US RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND NW
FLOW RETURNING TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. THIS WILL ALLOW MORE
COLD AIR TO MAKE INTO THE EAST AND KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. HPC PREFERS AN EVEN MORE
AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE AND THUS A DEEPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN
STATES THAT WHAT THE 03.00Z GFS INDICATED. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE
WINTER HAS FINALLY RETURNED TO THE EAST.

&&

.MARINE...THAT LOW FORMING BETWEEN BOLIVAR PENINSULA AND SABINE
PASS IN TEXAS IS JUST NOW IN THE ATCHAFALAYA-MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION. IT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL MOVE
PAST THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT QUICKLY BRINGING STRONG WEST WINDS TO
NEAR 30 KNOTS AND GUSTS EXCEEDING GALE FORCE. A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERATE SEAS FROM NEAR SHORE CAUSING THE
INTERACTION OF DEVELOPING AND DECAYING WAVE GROUPS MEANING SEAS
HIGHER THAN BRETSCHNEIDER METHODOLOGY WOULD INDICATE. HOWEVER THIS
COULD BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY DIFFUSION AROUND THE SHOAL WATER OF
THE SOUTHWEST PASS REGION... PARTICULARLY IN LARGER WAVES OF LONGER
WAVELENGTH..AND ARRIVING IN MOB MARINE AREA. NONETHELESS CHOSE TO
BIAS TOWARD SAFETY AND OVER-FORECAST JUST  A BIT. EXPECT THIS
SITUATION WOULD PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND SLOWLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO NEAR 35
PERCENT FOR LESS THAN FOUR CONSECUTIVE HOURS ON SATURDAY. CURRENTLY
THERE ARE NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND THOUGH
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      43  59  34  59 /  20   0   0   0
PENSACOLA   46  61  35  62 /  30   0   0   0
DESTIN      48  61  41  60 /  30   0   0   0
EVERGREEN   47  57  29  57 /  50   0   0   0
WAYNESBORO  41  56  30  59 /  50   0   0   0
CAMDEN      42  53  28  56 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ630-650-670.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ655-675.
MS...NONE.

&&

ST/LT...JC
MARINE...BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
520 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-041200-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
520 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. A MOIST SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITIES TO THE REGION THIS
EVENING.  A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
1100 PM. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WILL POSSIBLY BE ISSUED
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO...GROVE
HILL...GREENVILLE LINE. THE PRIMARY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH ALL THE STORMS
BEING EAST OF THE ENTIRE REGION BY AROUND MIDNIGHT.

MAKE SURE NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIOS HAVE A GOOD BATTERY
BACKUP...IN CASE SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY AND POWER
OUTAGES OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A STRONG OFFSHORE WIND AND HIGH SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO BOATING
OPERATIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR SMALLER CRAFT...THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. OVER LAND AREAS...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.