Severe Thunderstorm Warning 245, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
415 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...SYSTEM MOVING FROM OVER NM
TO TX AT THIS TIME WILL ORGANIZE A SURFACE FRONT OVER TX
TODAY...THEN TAKE IT NORTHEAST AS UPPER DYNAMICS GET SHUNTED
NORTHEASTWARD BY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MX. GFS IS A BIT
FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE PRECIP PASSAGE...THOUGH PRETTY EVEN
WITH THE WIND SHIFT OF THE FRONT (CROSSING THE FA AROUND
00Z...EXITING SE OF MARINE AREAS AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY). HAVE HELP
ON TO THE PRECIP LONGER THAN THE GFS IS ADVERTISING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THIS EVENT CROSSING PERIOD BOUNDARIES. USED THE MAV POPS AS A
START. FOR TEMPS...MAV AND MET ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...SO USED
THE MAV AS A START...TWEAKING FROM THERE.

FEELING IS THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SOME TO
BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING(MAINLY
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF FA). MODEL WIND PROFILES HAVE A BIT MORE
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS THAN YESTERDAYS LINEAR
PROFILE. STILL LOOKS LIKE (WITH STATISTICS ON MY SIDE...ANYWAYS)
MAINLY A WIND EVENT. WITH SPC GOING A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE FA...HAVE
PUT IN SEVERE WORDING FOR THE FORECAST. /16

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY). SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER EARLY FRIDAY THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST TO
THE TN RIVER VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION BY SAT AS NEXT S/W TROF
/SFC FRONT MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. WITH BROAD MID TO UPPER TROF OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS AND LITTLE DIGGING DEPICTED BY BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM BELIEVE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP WILL BE SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE MOVING
ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE CWFA SUN AND SUN NIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY MOST
PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER COAST AND OFFSHORE WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS. BY EARLY MON SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS. SOMEWHAT BETTER RIDGING IS NOTED
IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BY EARLY MON INTO TUES FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN FROM LAYER LIFT WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE WED THROUGH FRI AS ANOTHER
S/W MOVES EAST OF TX. THE HEAVIER PRECIP AGAIN LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO
COAST WITH MOST THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE CURRENT 00Z MEX MOS FOR TEMPS. /32

&&

.MARINE...SERIES OF UPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL CONUS WILL PUSH A FRONT ACROSS ALABAMA AND NW FL
PANHANDLE COASTAL WATERS EVERY FEW DAYS THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. THE
FIRST SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH
A FRONT ACROSS MARINE SECTIONS OF THE FA TONIGHT...WITH WIND SHIFT
LINE MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE FA AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY. GUIDANCE IS
WISHY-WASHY OF WHETHER WINDS WILL GET INTO SCA LEVELS...WITH UPPER
DYNAMICS AND SURFACE FRONT PULLING AWAY NORTHEAST FROM TX TONIGHT.
WENT SCA JUST AS A PRECAUTION...WITH FREQUENT GUST ABOVE SCA THE
REASON.

NEXT SYSTEM LOOKS TO PUSH A FRONT ACROSS THE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE DYNAMICS WILL BE
WEAKER...AND NOT DIG AS FAR SOUTH AS TODAYS...WITH MARINE MOS
INDICATING WINDS GETTING INTO THE LOW END EX CAUTION LEVELS. /16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      84  58  73  50 /  70  40  10  10
PENSACOLA   83  64  73  55 /  50  70  10  10
DESTIN      84  66  77  55 /  40  70  20  10
EVERGREEN   81  59  72  44 /  60  60  10  10
WAYNESBORO  79  53  68  42 /  80  30  10  10
CAMDEN      82  56  71  43 /  80  40   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
201100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
500 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT GULF
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

AS THIS FRONT CROSS ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT...STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL MAKE BOATING HAZARDOUS.

AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS TX TODAY BEFORE RAPIDLY
ACCELERATING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SOME STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVEL OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...INDICATING THAT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CROSS THE AREA...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL OCCUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL SETTLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...CREATING HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUDNAY
NIGHT...PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST DYNAMICS
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA...LIMITING THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT.