Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 150045
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
744 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

ALC003-150100-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0224.000000T0000Z-060815T0100Z/
BALDWIN AL-
744 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 741 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
SUMMERDALE...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. NO SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN 
REPORTED YET WITH THIS STORM BUT NEAR CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING IS 
OCCURRING.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELBERTA AND FOLEY BY 755 PM CDT

LAT...LON 3068 8754 3070 8774 3037 8774 3038 8753

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
345 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY). A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION
EARLIER TODAY CONTINUES TO PUSH SW TOWARDS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEX. EAST OF THE FRONT DRIER MID LEVEL AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION GIVING WAY TO SLIGHTLY BETTER LAPSE
RATES ALOFT. THIS REFLECTS WELL WITH CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
BOTH THE NAM AND RUC. AFTERNOON CAPES CONTINUE TO RANGE AROUND 3500
J/KG W/ SFC DEWPTS RANGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. PWS ARE A TAD
HIGHER ALSO AVERAGING AROUND 2 INCHES FOR MOST PLACES. LATEST PROGS
GENERALLY THE RUC...GFS AND NAM SHOW LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TOMORROW
SUGGESTING THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG DOWNBURSTS WITH SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS STILL EXISTS THROUGH TUE EVENING. AS FOR POPS WILL
STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE MENTIONING A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE HWO THROUGH TUESDAY. AS FOR TEMPS WILL STAY
CLOSE TO CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY. /32

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY). MID LEVEL TUTT OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRACKS WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE PD.
NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS A DEVELOPING SFC LOW IS FCST TO TRACK N AND E
TOWARDS THE MID ATLC COAST. WITH THIS BELIEVE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE...PWS AROUND 2 INCHES...FOR SCATTERED
TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE AT NIGHT...
DEVELOPING OVER INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON DUE TO BETTER HEATING.
OF COURSE THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL
ALSO EXIST MAINLY WITH THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO USE THE CURRENT 00Z MEX GUIDANCE FOR NOW.
/32

&&

.MARINE...A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT OVER
THE MARINE AREA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE...GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME MORE OF A PREDOMINANT ONSHORE 10 TO 15 KNOT
FLOW BY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA
WHICH WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE STORMS.
/12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  94  75  93 /  30  40  30  40
PENSACOLA   76  92  76  89 /  30  40  40  50
DESTIN      78  92  78  90 /  30  40  30  50
EVERGREEN   72  94  73  92 /  30  40  40  50
WAYNESBORO  72  99  73  95 /  30  30  40  40
CAMDEN      74  93  73  92 /  30  40  40  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-151100-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
1130 AM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. WHILE NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS COULD OCCUR...AND MANY OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...
PRODUCING FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES...GUSTY WINDS AROUND
45 TO 50 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINS TOTALING 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR.  THE
HEAVY RAINS FROM THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCED LOCALIZED FLOODING OF
SMALL STREAMS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
652 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

ALZ062-064-FLZ001-150030-
UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BAY MINETTE...
652 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER BALDWIN COUNTY...

AT 650 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN RABUN AND GATESWOOD...AND MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...DYAS TO GATESWOOD
AND BARRINEAU PARK THROUGH 730 PM CDT...POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST ESCAMBIA COUNTY FLORIDA.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.