Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
305 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...MCS THAT ROLLED SOUTHWEST
INTO THE MARINE ZONES THIS MORNING HAS STABILIZED COASTAL AREAS.
HOWEVER...INTERIOR REGIONS THAT HAVE HAD TOTAL INSOLATION HAVE
BECOME VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON W/ MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG WHILE MUCAPES ARE IN EXCESS OF 3K J/KG. DRY MID LEVEL
AIR...VISIBLE IN LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS... WRAPPING WESTWARD
AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
HAS ALSO AIDED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. THIS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
WILL ENHANCE THE DOWNDRAFT PRODUCTION FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON...W/ A FEW DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS A POSSIBILITY. SPC
SWODY 1 CONTINUES THE SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS SAME REASON. WHILE
INSTABILITY IS HIGH...SHEAR IS VERY LOW...THUS THE STORMS WILL BE
PULSE IN NATURE. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY
ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES...FOCUSED NEAR A STALLED FRONT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTHERN ZONES AND ALONG THE SEABREEZE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS MAY STILL DEVELOP IN COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE IS TRYING TO RECOVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION.

FOR SUNDAY...DRIER AIR MID LEVEL OVERSPREADS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH PW VALUES FALLING BELOW 1.7 INCHES ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS. WILL ALIGN THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA WHERE SOME INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ALONG
WITH THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS COULD BECOME STRONG AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THIS RIDGE WILL HELP CUT DOWN
ON RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. TEMPERATURE WILL ALSO
WARM W/ MID 90S BACK IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EXPECT THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN NEAR THE COAST W/ DISTURBED EASTERLY
FLOW AND THE AFT SEABREEZE COMBINING TO IGNITE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES...STALLS AND WASHES OUT ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS LINGERING WEAKNESS/SHEAR
AXIS COMBINED W/ PLENTIFUL LOW LVL MOISTURE (PW VALUES 1.7 TO 2
INCHES) WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK (WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORM FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WILL MAKE FOR A
FEW STRONGER PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN SOME BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND SENDS A WEAKENING FRONT TOWARD THE AREA.
/13

&&

.MARINE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD
AND OUT OF THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK INTO THE MARINE AREA FROM EAST BY EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
REMAIN THERE FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. WIND AND SEA STATES WILL
CHANGE VERY LITTLE OUTSIDE OF SOME INCREASE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE NEARSHORE AND IN THE BAYS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ALSO BE HIGHER NEAR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A STALLED FRONT ALONG WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL KEEP SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP VERY MOIST
TROPICAL AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IN THE FORECAST AREA...THUS
KEEPING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  92  73  93 /  20  40  10  30
PENSACOLA   75  91  77  93 /  20  40  10  30
DESTIN      78  92  79  92 /  20  20  10  30
EVERGREEN   72  94  72  93 /  20  20  10  30
WAYNESBORO  71  93  74  95 /  30  30  10  20
CAMDEN      72  96  74  94 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

13/JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-061100-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.  THE PRIMARY HAZARD TODAY WITH
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND DANGEROUS VERY
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.  SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINS TOTALING NEAR 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY.  WHILE A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS...THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE OR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE BRIEF...ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

GARMON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
246 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

MSZ078-052015-
STONE-
246 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
STONE COUNTY...

AT 245 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN STONE COUNTY SOUTH OF
BEATRICE...NEW THE HARRISON COUNTY LINE.  THE THUNDERSTORM WAS
MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...AND WAS LIKELY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AROUND
45 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN STONE
COUNTY SOUTH OF BEATRICE...MOVING TO NEAR MCHENRY BY THROUGH 315 PM
CDT.

WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.

PERSONS NEAR OR IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.  STAY AWAY FROM
EXTERIOR DOORS AND WINDOWS.  DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES AND STAY
AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
246 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

MSZ078-052015-
STONE-
246 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN
STONE COUNTY...

AT 245 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN STONE COUNTY SOUTH OF
BEATRICE...NEAR THE HARRISON COUNTY LINE.  THE THUNDERSTORM WAS
MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH...AND WAS LIKELY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AROUND
45 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN STONE
COUNTY SOUTH OF BEATRICE...MOVING TO NEAR MCHENRY BY THROUGH 315 PM
CDT.

WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH COULD BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW AROUND
UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS.

PERSONS NEAR OR IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN A
SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.  STAY AWAY FROM
EXTERIOR DOORS AND WINDOWS.  DO NOT USE CORDED TELEPHONES AND STAY
AWAY FROM ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES.