Severe Thunderstorm Warning 179, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS54 KMOB 172113
SVSMOB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
412 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

ALC035-099-172130-
/O.CON.KMOB.SV.W.0179.000000T0000Z-060717T2130Z/
CONECUH AL-MONROE AL-
412 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL MONROE AND WEST CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTIES...

AT 407 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR REPTON...OR ABOUT 9 
MILES SOUTH OF MONROEVILLE...AND WAS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EXCEL AND DREWRY BY 420 PM CDT

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

LAT...LON 3132 8724 3142 8715 3151 8726 3138 8742

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
309 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...NOT SEEING A GREAT DEAL OF
CHANGE. FORECAST AREA REMAINS ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL
UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...EASTWARD
INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WE EXPECT TO SEE A SERIES OF
WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASSING SOUTHWEST TO WEST OVER THE GULF
COAST...WHICH WHEN INTERACTING WITH DEEP ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE HELPS
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE INITIATION OF A SCATTERED VARIETY. WEAK SURFACE
TROF OVER THE SOUTH...DISSIPATES AND ANY SURFACE CONTRIBUTION TO
TUESDAYS STORMS LOOK TO COME FROM OLD AND THE PROPAGATION OF NEW
STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WE MAY INCORPORATE A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR
ALOFT INTO THE EQUATION...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS
FROM 35 TO 45 MPH IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF AND OF AN ISOLATED NATURE. STORMS WILL
ALSO BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS. /10

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MIGHT WANT TO HAVE AN
UMBRELLA HANDY WHEN OUT AND ABOUT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LOOKS
TO MAINTAIN ITS CHARACTER AS DISCUSSED ABOVE THROUGH FRIDAY...SETTING
UP A SIMILAR DAY TO DAY SCENARIO. WE COULD SEE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...BUT ENOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
BREAK DOWN...BEING REPLACED BY A BROAD UPPER TROF INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT/TROF SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND STALLS. THIS
KEEPS THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY OPEN FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINS AS WE ARE
NOW MEASURING THE YEAR TO DATE RAINFALL DEFICITS IN FEET OVER MANY
AREAS. /10

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. AS
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA BY LATER IN THE WEEK AS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL DEVELOP. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES ON
TUESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. SEAS GENERALLY REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LITTLE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IS FORECAST...
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. DAYTIME DISPERSION FAIR TO
AVERAGE AND POOR DURING THE NIGHT. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      75  91  75  92 /  30  40  20  40
PENSACOLA   76  90  76  92 /  30  40  10  30
DESTIN      78  90  78  92 /  30  40  20  30
EVERGREEN   72  92  72  93 /  30  30  20  40
WAYNESBORO  74  94  73  94 /  30  30  20  40
CAMDEN      77  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

10/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-181100-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
500 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE REGION. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST STRETCHING INLAND MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF ALABAMA AND
MISSISSIPPI AND EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED CASES OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...MAINLY INLAND DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE MORNING.

THE PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED ONLY ON AN ISOLATED BASES...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1242 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

ALZ063-171830-
LOWER MOBILE-
1242 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER SOUTHEAST MOBILE
COUNTY...

AT 1240 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH ORCHARD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
LAURENDINE...BELLEFONTAINE...THEODORE...MOBILE GREYHOUND PARK AND
HOLLINGERS ISLAND THROUGH 130 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM
45 TO 55 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE
PRESENTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...WIND GUSTS FROM THESE STORMS CAN
DOWN TREES THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED WEAKENING FROM PAST HURRICANES OR
ARE DEAD BUT STILL STANDING. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT
TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

FLZ003-004-171830-
INLAND SANTA ROSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-
1252 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER CENTRAL SANTA ROSA
COUNTY...

AT 1248 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES WEST OF MILTON NEAR WHITING FIELD...AND WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
MILTON NEAR WHITING FIELD THROUGH 130 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM
45 TO 55 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE
PRESENTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...WIND GUSTS FROM THESE STORMS CAN
DOWN TREES THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED WEAKENING FROM PAST HURRICANES OR
ARE DEAD BUT STILL STANDING. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF XX TO XX
INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT
TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
145 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

ALZ061-171915-
UPPER MOBILE-
145 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER NORTHERN MOBILE
COUNTY...

AT 140 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CELESTE...AND WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
AXIS...GULFCREST...TURNERVILLE AND PINEOLA THROUGH 215 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM
45 TO 55 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE
PRESENTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...WIND GUSTS FROM THESE STORMS CAN
DOWN TREES THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED WEAKENING FROM PAST HURRICANES OR
ARE DEAD BUT STILL STANDING. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF XX TO XX
INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT
TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
145 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

ALZ061-171915-
UPPER MOBILE-
145 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER NORTHERN MOBILE
COUNTY...

AT 140 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF CELESTE...AND WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
AXIS...GULFCREST...TURNERVILLE AND PINEOLA THROUGH 215 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF WIND GUSTS FROM
45 TO 55 MPH...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL.
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND
BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. ALTHOUGH THESE STORMS ARE
PRESENTLY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...WIND GUSTS FROM THESE STORMS CAN
DOWN TREES THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED WEAKENING FROM PAST HURRICANES OR
ARE DEAD BUT STILL STANDING. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORMS HAVE PASSED.

THESE STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO
INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT
TO ALLOW YOU TO CROSS SAFELY.