Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1140 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006

.UPDATE...PACKAGE UPDATED TO PUSH BACK CLOUDINESS TIMING...WITH TSRA
ONLY BEGINNING OVER NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA AT THIS TIME. SO
FAR...NORTHERLY FLOW LOOKS ENOUGH TO GREATLY SLOW DOWN THE GULF
BREEZE...WITH KHRT THE ONLY NEAR COAST STATION REPORTING AN ONSHORE
WIND AT THIS TIME. DONT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM CURRENT
FORECAST.

16

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CONVECTION WILL BE SPOOLING UP
LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. INVERTED TROUGH OR LOW
COMING IN FROM FLORIDA WILL BRING SOME WRAPAROUND CONVECTIVE BANDS.
HENCE THE LIKELY POPS SEEN FROM WHERE WE SIT AND FROM THE GUIDANCE.

WENT WITH MET GUIDANCE FOR MOST MAXIMA EXCEPT ALONG THE BEACH. THIS
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE OF PERFORMANCE BEING BIASED TO MET BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES THE LAST FEW DAYS. /77

(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR
DESTIN BY MONDAY MORNING...AS EAST CONUS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN.  LOW WILL GET PICKED UP BY SUB-TROPICAL JET AND LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH IN ITS
WAKE THAT WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.  DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE BOUNDARY...WILL KEEP
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR MONDAY.  PW VALUES
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SCATTERED MAINLY EVENING PRECIP SOUTHEAST OF I-65...AND ISOLATED TO
THE NORTHWEST.  DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AS
UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS ACROSS THE SOUTH...SO KEPT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CHANCE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. /22

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING
PW VALUES DOWN TO AROUND .75 NORTHERN ZONES TO AROUND 1.5 ALONG
THE COAST.  THIS WILL USHER IN A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL RESUME LATER IN
THE WEEK...AND ALLOW DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK BACK INTO THE REGION.
EXPECT A RETURN TO ISOLATED AND SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN THE
FORECAST. /22

&&

.MARINE...THAT LOW MOVING WEST ACROSS THE NORTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND OVER THE PANHANDLE SUNDAY...THEN NORTHEAST FROM EARLY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY THROUGH GEORGIA...WILL HELP FRONTOGENETIC PROCESSES ON
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT NORTHWEST OF US. THAT WILL DISSIPATE
WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON NEAR SHORE WITH THE SEABREEZE...AND A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ELSEWHERE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOST WIND OBSERVATIONS IN THE MARINE AREA SHOW NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MODELS WENT OVER THE TOP FOR SATURDAY WINDS
SO WE CLIPPED THEM AND WILL WATCH FOR RECURRENCE. CHANCES ARE GOOD
WE THINK THAT THERE WILL BE NONE AND FEW MAJOR CHANGES ARE PLANNED
WITH THE MARINE PACKAGE. /77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  70  92  70 /  60  30  50  30
PENSACOLA   90  73  91  73 /  50  30  50  40
DESTIN      89  75  89  76 /  40  30  50  40
EVERGREEN   94  70  92  68 /  60  50  50  40
WAYNESBORO  93  68  90  67 /  60  30  40  20
CAMDEN      93  70  91  69 /  60  50  50  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-261030-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
630 AM CDT SUN JUN 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
LASTING INTO THIS EVENING. SOME WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT
COULD CAUSE MINOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. IN
ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PRODUCE FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.