Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
335 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
MAKING BETTER PROGRESS INLAND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE REGION AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA.
AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A WEAK SFC TROUGH ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATING CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000
J/KG AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WARM MID LEVELS ARE
STILL PUTTING A CAP ON DEVELOPMENT. AS SFC RIDGE SLIDES EAST
TOMORROW DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE
BACK INTO THE REGION AS PW VALUES CLIMB BACK TO NEAR 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. HOWEVER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STILL KEEPING AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FAIRLY LOW...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A LITTLE MORE DEVELOPMENT THAT TODAY. THE INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL BE FELT IN THE HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING FOR RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE
TOMORROW AND LASTING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED RISK OF WET
MICROBURSTS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT COMBINED W/ STEEP SFC-FZL LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPER MOISTURE.

SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SLIDES EAST AND AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS PLACING THE REGION IN THE FAVORABLE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS...PW VALUES BACK NEAR
1.8 INCHES AND AFTERNOON TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 90S WILL MAKE
FOR A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AS
CONVERGENCE GENERATED BY THE SEA BREEZE AND HEATING OF THE DAY WILL
HELP GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE WEST CLOSER TO THE COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...SUNDAY...THE TROUGH PUSHES
FARTHER EASTWARD AND PW VALUES REMAIN NEAR 1.7 INCHES W/ K-INDEX
VALUES IN THE LOWER 30S LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS REMAINS WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI AND WEAKENS AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL STATES. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BACK IN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CONVECTIVE REGIME W/ ISOLATED POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
THE SEA BREEZE DOMINATING AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. /13

&&

.MARINE...A DISSIPATING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL ALLOW A
LIGHT ONSHORE WIND FLOW AND SEABREEZE TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS TWO FEET OR LESS EXPECTED.
/22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      73  93  73  91 /   0  10  20  30
PENSACOLA   74  92  73  90 /   0  10  20  20
DESTIN      77  91  76  90 /   0  10  20  20
EVERGREEN   68  94  68  92 /   0  10  20  20
WAYNESBORO  70  94  70  90 /  10  20  20  40
CAMDEN      67  95  71  93 /  10  10  20  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

13/JC
22/JP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
815 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-161100-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
815 AM CDT THU JUN 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.