Red Flag Warning 42, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
355 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LARGE UPPER LOW LOCATED ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD TODAY AND OPEN UP THROUGH THIS
EVENING. AS THIS HAPPENS...UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE THE PLAINS WILL
AMPLIFY AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL VEER
TO EASTERLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING AS THE
HIGH MOVES BY TO THE EAST. UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL
KEEP A STRONGLY SUBSIDENT AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AND THUS
A DRY FORECAST. CIRRUS CLOUDS...SPILLING OVER THE RIDGE WILL MOVE
ACROSS DURING THE DAY...GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT ON SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPPER LOW. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE NEAR 80 ACROSS MOST
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOWS TONIGHT ABOVE THE LAST FEW THANKS TO
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER
50S INLAND. /13

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE THAT THE CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT A LOW LATITUDE THROUGH FRIDAY THEN LIFT
AND DAMPEN THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND THEN LIFTS OUT...SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES SATURDAY AND ALSO LIFTS NORTH WITH
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN STATES LATE SATURDAY
AND REMAINING OVER THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
THIS...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN (WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS) OVER THE AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY AS BEST DYNAMICS LIFT OFF WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FCST
AREA...THEN INCREASE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ONCE AGAIN NEXT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS NEARLY STATIONARY SYSTEM WELL TO THE
NORTH GETS A PUNCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND FINALLY MOVES ON OFF TO
THE EAST...ALLOWING A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. MAINTAINED MAV MOS TEMPS THROUGH EXTENDED
PERIOD. /12

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
MOVE EASTWARD TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS TEXAS AND
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THIS LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BY EARLY
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL AREAS BY SATURDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL ALSO
INCREASE TO 5 TO 8 FEET OUT TO 20 NM AND 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 20 TO 60
NM OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED W/ THE
LOW STALLS WEST OF THE AREA AND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. /13

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
REGION TODAY. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOW
DEWPOINTS...COMBINED WITH MIXING AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WHICH WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S...WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES RANGING IN THE UPPER 20 TO LOWER 30S OVER
MOST OF THE REGION...WITH MID TO UPPER 30 RHS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
WITH THIS...HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TODAY OVER THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR LONG DURATION
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT. /12

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  62  79  66 /   0  10  20  50
PENSACOLA   79  62  76  64 /   0  10  10  40
DESTIN      78  64  76  63 /   0  10  10  20
EVERGREEN   81  55  79  59 /   0  10  20  50
WAYNESBORO  81  55  77  61 /   0  10  40  80
CAMDEN      82  58  78  57 /   0  10  30  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TODAY TO 7 PM TODAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
600 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-290000-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
600 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT DUE TO LONG DURATIONS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
ALSO...INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE THE MAIN
THREATS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

ADDITIONALLY...STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL
NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.