Frost Advisory 3, NWS Mobile, AL

000 
WWUS74 KMOB 130328
NPWMOB

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
928 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA EXCEPT
COASTAL PORTIONS...THE INLAND PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EXCEPT FOR STONE AND GEORGE
COUNTIES...

.CEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE MID THIRTIES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER INLAND AREAS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER THIRTIES. AREAS OF FROST WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY 1 AM AND CONTINUE UNTIL
TEMPERATURES WARM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREAS OF FROST POSE A
DANGER TO TENDER VEGETATION.

ALZ051>062-FLZ001-003-005-MSZ067-075-076-131300-
/O.CON.KMOB.FR.Y.0003.061113T0700Z-061113T1300Z/
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-
INLAND SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-GREENE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUTLER...LISMAN...SILAS...CHATOM...
MILLRY...JACKSON...THOMASVILLE...GROVE HILL...CAMDEN...
PINE HILL...HOMEWOOD...MONROEVILLE...EVERGREEN...GREENVILLE...
LUVERNE...BRANTLEY...ATMORE...BREWTON...EAST BREWTON...
ANDALUSIA...OPP...PRICHARD...SARALAND...BAY MINETTE...CENTURY...
FLOMATON...MOLINO...JAY...CRESTVIEW...WAYNESBORO...RICHTON...
BEAUMONT...NEW AUGUSTA...LEAKESVILLE...MCLAIN
928 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CST
MONDAY...

AREAS OF FROST WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA BY 1
AM AND CONTINUE UNTIL THE AREA WARMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE AREAS
OF FROST POSE A DANGER TO TENDER VEGETATION.

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
337 PM CST SUN NOV 12 2006

.SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE NOREASTER TYPE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR THE VIRGINIA COAST CONTINUES SLOWLY NORTHWARD
THROUGH MONDAY AND AIDS IN HOLDING LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN STATES...INCLUDING THE FORECAST AREA.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS STORE FOR THE AREA TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY RETURNING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP TO 31 TO 32 ACROSS MUCH OF THE INLAND AREA TONIGHT.  MUCH
OF THE INLAND AREA HAS ALREADY BEEN COVERED WITH A FREEZE WARNING
EARLIER ON NOVEMBER FOURTH AND AS THIS IS A MARGINAL EVENT WILL GO
WITH A FROST ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE COASTAL PORTION OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE SOUTHERNMOST TWO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.  A
MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN STATES MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROF OR WEAK REINFORCING FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT AS THE SURFACE
AND UPPER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA...BUT OTHERWISE A DRY
FORECAST CONTINUES.  ON TUESDAY A MUCH ANTICIPATED SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EVOLVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A STRONG SURGE OF MID LEVEL ENERGY
SWINGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES.  THE ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLOGENESIS SURFACE
LOW ADVANCES EASTWARD AND OCCLUDES ON WEDNESDAY OVER ILLINOIS WHILE
BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  MOISTURE
RETURNS RAPIDLY TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB WINDS INCREASE
TO 45 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL INHIBITED BY LOW INSTABILITY ADVANCES
INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A SQUALL LINE
ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER LIFT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  A 50-55 KNOT 850 MB JET WILL
GENERATE 0-3 KM HELICITIES OF 200-350 J/KG...PLENTY FOR SEVERE
CONVECTION.  THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THE NAM
HAVING SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 1500-2000 OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA COMPARED WITH GFS VALUES AT BEST ATTAINING 700-900 J/KG.
THIS TIME PERIOD IS STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR THE DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK AND
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR AT THIS POINT.  CURRENT PACKAGE HAS
LIKELY POPS AND FEEL THAT A CATEGORICAL FORECAST LOOKS
INEVITABLE...BUT THIS IS THE SIXTH PERIOD SO WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR
NOW. /29

&&

.LONG TERM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.  COOL TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY GRADUALLY RETURN TO
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY. /29

&&

.MARINE...FRONT WHICH PASSED YESTERDAY HAS MOVED WELL
OFFSHORE...WITH SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE TENN/OHIO RIVER
VALLEYS. LIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHEN A
SURFACE FRONT MOVING OVER THE MISS RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO STIR
THINGS UP. MODELS STILL CONSISTENT IN MOVING FRONT OVER MARINE AREAS
OF THE FA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE. FLOW WILL STAY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK...WITH A WEAKER RE-ENFORCING FRONT CROSSING ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY. /16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DEWPOINTS PROVED SURPRISINGLY RESILIENT TODAY AND
DID NOT DROP OFF DUE TO MIXING WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AS EXPECTED.  MAY
SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BRIEFLY DROP BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS OVER THE
NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE BUT AS DURATION WILL DEFINITELY NOT BE
SATISFIED HAD TO CANCEL THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY.  OPTED TO
KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH ON MONDAY AS IT IS AND NOT UPGRADE IT TO
A RED FLAG WARNING AS CONDITIONS SEEM MARGINAL AT BEST AT THIS POINT
EXCEPT FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PANHANDLE.  WILL LET THE NEXT
SHIFTS REASSESS THIS FOR EITHER UPGRADE OR CANCELLATION.  NO
CONCERNS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      40  70  45  69 /  05  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   43  70  48  71 /  05  05  05  05
DESTIN      46  68  48  69 /  05  05  10  05
EVERGREEN   31  69  39  70 /  05  05  10  05
WAYNESBORO  32  68  39  69 /  05  10  05  05
CAMDEN      34  68  41  70 /  05  10  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES:
BUTLER...CHOCTAW...CLARKE...CONECUH...COVINGTON...
CRENSHAW...ESCAMBIA...MONROE...UPPER BALDWIN...UPPER
MOBILE...WASHINGTON...AND WILCOX.

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 5 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ESCAMBIA...OKALOOSA...SANTA ROSA...AND
     COASTAL WALTON.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES: INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND
SANTA      ROSA.

MS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING      ZONES: GREENE...PERRY...AND WAYNE.

GM...NONE.

29 EVERSOLE
16 MILLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CST SUN NOV 12 2006

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-
121800-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
MOBILE BAY-BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-
CONECUH-COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-
GEORGE-GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
630 AM CST SUN NOV 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT GULF
COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY IS FOLLOWED BY A
HIGH BUILDING BEHIND IT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED WITH THE MORNING UPDATE OF THE MARINE
FORECAST. TONIGHT AS WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL
DECREASE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY
TO CREATE A WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER AHEAD OF IT. IN ADDITION FOR
POSSIBLE LOW VISIBILITY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING...THE MODEL
CALCULATIONS ARE NOW INDICATING THAT THE PARENT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
A LARGE ONE AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST US. ALTHOUGH IT WOULD PASS WELL
NORTH OF OUR CWA...A PROLONGED ONSHORE FLOW OF 30 KNOTS OR MORE COULD
CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SITUATION COULD
CHANGE AND IT CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS OR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE REQUIRED THROUGH
TONIGHT.