Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Melbourne, FL

000 
WWUS52 KMLB 302324
SVSMLB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
718 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

FLC127-302345-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0037.000000T0000Z-060730T2345Z/
VOLUSIA FL-
718 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 718 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS 
LOCATED NEAR THE COAST BETWEEN SOUTH DAYTONA AND PONCE INLET
...MOVING EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

WITH OTHER STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AREA...ADDITIONAL 
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HOLLY 
HILL...ORMOND BY THE SEA...DAYTONA BEACH...SOUTH 
DAYTONA...BLAKE...ALLANDALE...HARBOR OAKS...DAYTONA BEACH 
SHORES...NEW SMYRNA BEACH...WILBUR BY THE SEA...EDGEWATER...PONCE 
INLET...TURTLE MOUND...OAK HILL...BETHUNE BEACH...APOLLO BEACH AND 
ELDORA.

TOO...DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS 
STORM. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A BRIEF TORNADO MAY DEVELOP. 
IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY 
IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...SO EVEN RESIDENTS ON 
THE PERIPHERY SHOULD BE SURE TO TREAT THIS STORM WITH DUE RESPECT 
AND MOVE INDOORS. 

LAT...LON 2923 8132 2886 8113 2883 8076 2935 8103

$$
DWS

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
246 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT...VIS SAT AND 88D IMAGERY SHOW ECSB FORMING FROM MOSQUITO
LAGOON SWD AND HAS PROGRESSED INLAND TO ABOUT I-95 SOUTH OF BREVARD
CO. WCSB HAS FORMED AND IS MAKING A MORE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH EWD THRU
THE NATURE COAST COS. LARGE N-S ORIENTED SWATH OF AS/CS WHICH HAS
BEEN OVER THE NRN CWA SINCE DAYBREAK CONTINUES TO THIN AS IT DRIFTS
EWD...AND IS NOW ALONG/EAST OF I-4.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHG TO PREV THOUGHTS REGARDING DIURNAL CONVECTION.
GREATEST COVRG SHOULD BE ACROSS THE NRN CWA IN AREA OF HIGHEST PWATS
...WITH THE ACTIVITY CARRYING EWD OVER THE COASTAL COS OWING TO AN
INCREASING WRLY STEERING FLOW . HAVE GONE WITH A 30 FOR VOLUSIA AND
NRN BREVARD COS...AND A 20 ELSEWHERE TO COVER THE FIRST COUPLE HRS
OF THE EVENING PD.

MON-TUE...SURFACE RIDGE WL BECOME DISPLACED SLIGHTLY OVER THE SOUTH
PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT WL REMAIN IN PLACE AS MAIN FEATURE.
WLY FLOW OF 6 TO 9 MPH WL BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT OR PIN ECSB TO THE ATLC
COAST WITH PWAT NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS OF 1.7-1.9 INCHES. WITH RATHER
DEEP WLY FLOW IN PLACE WILL KEEP SCT POPS IN FCST OVER MOST OF AREA
WITH TIMING FAVORING THE AFTERNOON FOR MAJORITY OF THUNDER. TUTT NR
BAHAMAS WL CONTINUE A SLOW DRIFT TWD S FL. SUBSIDENCE REACHING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA WL HINDER PRECIP DVLPMT MAINLY
ON MON.

WED-SUN...BROAD ATLC RIDGE WL REMAIN ESTD OVER THE PENINSULA WITH
S/SW FLOW OVER THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS @ SEASONAL LEVELS WL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CST AFTERNOON STORMS WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON. LEADING INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST WL BE LIKELY BASED ON CONTINUITY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LACK
OF PATTERN CHANGE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...WITH SFC RIDGE RETREATING SEWD...S-SW FLOW WILL INCREASE
SLGTLY TO AROUND 10-15KT OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS REMAINING A BIT EITHER
SIDE OF 3FT IN A SMALL EAST SWELL. FETCH LIMITED CONDITIONS WL BE IN
PLACE THROUGH TUE WITH HIGHER SEAS MAINLY OFFSHORE IN UNPROTECTED
AREAS. STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPE WL PRODUCE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN THE EVENING EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE
MCO-ORL-SFB-DAB CORRIDOR THROUGH ABOUT 22-23Z. MAY SEE A LINGERING
SHRA OR TSRA GET NEAR MLB OR VRB BTWN 00Z-02Z...BUT LOOKING LESS
LIKELY THAN PREV THOUGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  92  74  90 /  30  40  20  40
MCO  75  94  75  91 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  74  92  73  90 /  20  30  20  40
VRB  74  93  74  91 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....PENDERGRAST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
302015-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1130 AM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA COMBINED WITH A
SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHEST FROM ORLANDO AND TITUSVILLE NORTHWARD.
THE MAIN STORM THREATS CONTINUE TO BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES EASTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME PONDING OF WATER
ON ROADS AND IN OTHER POORLY DRAINED LOW LYING AREAS.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 2 TO 3 FEET WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
OUTGOING TIDE. THE VOLUSIA COUNTY BEACH PATROL REPORTED MANY RESCUES
FROM RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED STORMS WILL MOVE SEAWARD OUT ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND
NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTH
OF CAPE CANAVERAL. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS  WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DECREASE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE BACK OVER THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY
BRINGING AN INCREASED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TO THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

CRISTALDI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
614 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

FLZ041-044>046-141-144-147-302315-
COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY-
614 PM EDT SUN JUL 30 2006

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS NORTHERN BREVARD
COUNTY...LAKE COUNTY...NORTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...SEMINOLE
COUNTY...VOLUSIA COUNTY...

AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
DEVELOPING STORMS OVER LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES.  THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM AS WELL AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND EXISTING STORMS INTERACT WITH THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE.  THESE STORMS MAY FORM VERY QUICKLY AS THEY WILL FORM IN
AN AIRMASS THAT HAS RECEIVED NEAR FULL SUN THIS AFTERNOON.

BRAGAW