Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
143 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT...LIGHTNING STORMS BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN THE MID LEVEL
STABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA.  EXPECT
TSTMS TO SWEEP OFF SHORE NORTH OF THE CAPE. SEE CU MOVING OFF SHORE
ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY SO MOST ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
OCCUR JUST OFF THE COAST.  SEA BREEZE HAS MOVED INLAND IN PALM
BEACH COUNTY BUT SEEMS TO BE PINNED TO THE COAST FROM THE CAPE TO
STUART.  CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO START OVER AND SOUTH OF BREVARD
AND OSCEOLA COUNTY MAINLY DUE TO RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS.  EXPECT
THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SPREAD STORMS OVER THIS
AREA WITH A CONCENTRATION ALONG THE COAST AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

TUE-WED...SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION BACK
NORTHWARD AS OFFSHORE FLOW TRANSITIONS BACK TO ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED (30-40%) AFTN/EVENING SHRA/TSRA IN THE FCST WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR MOST DAYS AS THE DAILY
SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND. MID LVL TEMPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
WARM...LIMITING INSTABILITY AS A MID LVL RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND IN THE LOWER
90S...JUST SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

THU-MON...LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE A BIT FURTHER NORTHWARD
DURING THIS PERIOD. SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS PERIOD AND A SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOCUS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. PREVIOUS FCSTR UNDERCUT MOS POPS BY AROUND 10%
THROUGH THE EXTENDED AND FORESEE NO CHANGES HERE. NEAR CLIMO VALUES
EXPECTED FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OFF VOLUSIA
COUNTY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE EVENING AS
INLAND CONVECTION MOVES TOWARD THE COAST.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION BACK TO LIGHT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RIDGE AXIS CREEPS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
VEER BRIEFLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING/WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE BACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS AND
SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT IFR THRU 23Z PRIMARILY ASCD WITH SCT-NMRS
CONVECTION. GRADUAL CLEARING AFT 02Z WITH WIDELY SCT SHOWERS MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST AND ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT. PREVAILING VFR OVER
THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  74  90 /  30  40  20  40
MCO  76  93  75  93 /  20  40  20  40
MLB  74  91  74  89 /  20  40  20  40
VRB  74  91  76  90 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...DECKER
LONG TERM....SEDLOCK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
752 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
242100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
752 AM EDT MON JUL 24 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
HIGH MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH SURFACE HEATING TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE SPREADS INLAND. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE
EAST AT AROUND 10 MPH. THE MAIN STORM THREATS CONTINUE TO BE
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND WIND GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH IN THE STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
TWO INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A RELATIVELY BRIEF TIME. THE PRESENCE
OF INTERACTING BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES IN THE STRONGER STORMS AND PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING POORLY DRAINED AREAS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR.

...MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE SEAWARD OUT OVER THE
INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KNOTS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
SEAS.

...WATERSPOUT IMPACT...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WILL PRESENT A SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
WATERSPOUTS. AREAS ARE TYPICALLY FOUND ALONG THE INTRACOASTAL
WATERWAY AS WELL AS CAPE CANAVERAL AND MERRITT ISLAND...WHICH
USUALLY PRESENT LOCALIZED BOUNDARIES DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW AND
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED...BUT WILL
DECREASE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FROM TUESDAY ONWARD...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES RE ESTABLISHED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE
IF NEEDED.

PENDERGRAST/SEDLOCK