Red Flag Warning 82, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
415 AM EST TUE NOV 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS AREAWIDE. DIVGT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN COMBINED
WITH HIGH LEVEL RH IS RESULTING IN EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUD CANOPY...
WHICH HAS THINNED OUT QUITE A BIT OVER THE LAST HR. 00Z RAOBS NOT AT
ALL SUPPORTIVE OF ANY LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS - QUITE PARCHED BELOW
H60...SO WE SHOULD SEE QUITE A BIT OF SUN WITH SCT TO OCNLY BKN BUT
TRANSLUCENT CI FOR TODAY AND MCLR SKIES TONIGHT. TEMPS U70S NORTH TO
L80S SOUTH...PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL. HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY EASE EWD
INTO THE ATLC LATE TONIGHT...SO EXPECT QUICK DROPOFF IN WINDS/TEMPS
WITH DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE STATE - MINS MAINLY IN THE 55-60F
RANGE...A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS THE FAR NRN INTR.

WED/THU...STRONG H25 JET STREAK PUSHING ACROSS THE WRN U.S. HAS A
LONG EXTENTION INTO THE ERN PAC...THE 100KT ISOTACH EXTENDS FROM WRN
KANSAS CLEAR BACK TO 160W...SAME AS THE W HAWAIIAN/E ALUETIAN
ISLANDS.  AS THE JET PUSHES ACROSS THE U.S...IT WILL UNDERGO
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION...WITH ITS ERN MAX DIGGING DOWN THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ROCKY MTNS BY DAYBREAK WED.  THIS DIGGING JET
WILL DEVELOP A RATHER INNOCUOUS H50 TROF OVER THE HIGH PLAINS INTO A
CLOSED LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  FURTHERMORE...WITH THE BULK OF THE
JET ENERGY STILL UPSTREAM...IT IS QUITE LIKELY THE ORIENTATION OF
THE CLOSED LOW WILL UNDERGO A POSITIVE-TO-NEGATIVE INTENSIFICATION
WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU MORNING AS IT PASSES OVER THE MS/TN
RIVERS.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RIDGING OVER THE WRN ATLC IS UP OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO REBUILD IN TIME TO
PREVENT THE DEVELOPING LOW TO CRANK A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA BY
LATE THU EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH
THE SFC LOW ALMOST DUE NORTH AS IT APPROACHES THE ERN SEABOARD...A
TRACK THAT WOULD TAKE MUCH OF THE MID/UPR LVL DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALONG
WITH IT.

A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FL PENINSULA WILL RECEIVE THE SRN EXTENTION
OF THE LINE AS THE SFC LOW PULLS N INTO THE MID ATLC.  PRECIP
CHANCES WILL BE AOA 50%...BUT TOTAL QPF NUMBERS WILL BE AOB 1.0.

FRI-MON...
MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POSTIVE PNA RIDGING ACROSS THE
NORTH AMERICAN CONTINENT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.  THE RESULTING
NW/SE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CONUS WILL TAP THE COOL/DRY CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS AND SHUNT IT INTO THE DEEP S...KEEPING THE FL PENINSULA IN
BLO CLIMO TEMPS AND VIRTUALLY NO PRECIP CHANCES.  THE AMPLITUDE OF
THE PNA PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH...BUT IT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS ABOUT 5-10F DEG BLO CLIMO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS/SEAS AOB 10KT/2FT THRU TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES RIDGE
SLIDES SLOWLY ACROSS THE STATE. SFC/BNDRY LYR WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE S ON WED AS THE SQUALL LINE/COLD PUSHES INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH/WRN FL PANHANDLE.  PGRAD COULD TIGHTEN ENOUGH BY LATE WED
NIGHT TO SUPPORT SCA WINDS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THRU THE STATE.
WEAK SFC HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW SFC WINDS TO DROP BLO SCA
LVLS BY THU NIGHT AS THE THEY VEER TO THE WNW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH SKC BLO 120 THRU TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HAVE UPGRADED EXISTING WATCH TO AN RFW AS SFC RH
VALS ARE EXPECTED TO CRASH INTO THE 30-35% ACROSS MOST OF THIS AREA
BY EARLY AFTN. DURATIONS...HOWEVER...WILL BE MARGINAL (3-5HR @ BEST)
GIVEN THE SHORT LENGTH OF DAYLIGHT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  56  82  68 /   0   0  10  60
MCO  79  57  84  67 /   0   0  10  60
MLB  78  61  82  72 /   0   0  10  50
VRB  80  61  83  74 /   0   0  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 RED FLAG WARNING THIS AFTN FROM NOON UNTIL 5PM FOR LAKE/INLAND
 VOLUSIA/SEMINOLE/ORANGE COS.

&&

SHORT TERM...CRISTALDI
LONG TERM....BRAGAW