Lake Wind Advisory 13, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EST FRI NOV 3 2006

.UPDATED DISCUSSION...

ALLOWED WIND AND LAKE WIND ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 9
PM. IT WILL REMAIN WINDY ALG THE COAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH BUT THIS IS BELOW WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. THE INTERIOR COUNTIES WILL SEE A MORE NOTICEABLE REDUCTION
IN WIND TONIGHT ESP IN THE GUSTINESS.

VERY NARROW BAND OF HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED 2.0-2.5 OF RAIN ACROSS A
SMALL AREA OF WEST MELBOURNE AND NW PALM BAY EARLY THIS EVENING.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY AND EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO RACE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT MAINLY CROSSING THE TREASURE
COAST. SO WILL KEEP A VERY LOW POP IN FOR THE COAST. SKY COVER IS A
BIT TRICKY. EXPECT MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN MOST AREAS ESP NEAR THE
COAST AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS SAT AFTN. BUT NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS
COULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...HAVE NOT SEEN ANY GUSTS TO GALE FORCE YET AT COASTAL SITES
OR EVEN NOAA BUOYS. AND THINK WE WOULD HAVE BY NOW ESP IN THE FIRST
6 HOURS AFTER THE ONSET OF THE WIND SURGE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE (34 KTS) BUT NO LONGER THINK THE
GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH (40 KTS) OR FREQUENT ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING. SO WILL LOWER TO A STRONG SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WITH MENTION OF OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. SEAS HAVE
RISEN RAPIDLY TO 10-12 FT OVER THE OPEN ATLC AND LIKELY HIGHER IN
THE GULF STREAM. THIS IS PRODUCING ROUGH POUNDING SURF AT THE
BEACHES AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES.

&&

.AVIATION...INTERIOR SITES ARE SEEING MARINE STRATOCU DECK BEGIN TO
BREAKUP AND SFC WNDS GUSTS DIMINISHING BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN 10-15
KTS OUT OF THE NORTH. COASTAL SITES WILL SEE SFC WND G25KTS FOR MOST
OF THE OVERNIGHT PD WITH POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/ISOLD SHRAS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER INLET 0-60 NM THROUGH
 SUNDAY NIGHT.

.HIGH SURF ADVISORY COASTAL ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

KELLY/WIMMER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1046 PM EST FRI NOV 3 2006

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
041100-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
1046 PM EST FRI NOV 3 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...HIGH WIND IMPACT...
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND
MAINLAND COMMUNITIES ADJACENT TO THE INTRACOASTAL WHERE NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. BUT FARTHER
INLAND...AND ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR COUNTIES...WINDS HAVE
DECREASED TO 10 TO 15 MPH.

...COASTAL FLOOD IMPACT...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS PRODUCED A
SURGE OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 30
MPH...WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH...HAVE RAPIDLY BUILT SEAS 10 TO 12
FEET OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS...AND UP TO 14 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM. SUCH STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH
AND DANGEROUS SURF WITH 6 TO 7 FOOT BREAKERS POUNDING THE
COASTLINE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE ROUGH AND POUNDING SURF CAN
KNOCK YOU DOWN AND MAKE YOU SUSCEPTIBLE TO BEING CAUGHT IN A RIP
CURRENT. PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACHES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD NOT ENTER
THE SURF.

THE HIGH SURF...IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON THIS WEEKEND...AND STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS...WILL PROMOTE BEACH EROSION DURING EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
SEVERAL HIGH TIDES WITH MINOR BEACH EROSION MAY PRODUCE MODERATE
EROSION IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

THE NEXT HIGH TIDES ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 6 AND 7 AM SATURDAY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. SEAS HAVE
RISEN TO 10 TO 12 FEET AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE GULF STREAM.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGH...ROUGH SURF AND STRONG ONSHORE WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
SUBSIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

KELLY