Freeze Warning 2, NWS Melbourne, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
950 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2006

...FROST AND/OR FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS SUNDAY
    MORNING...

...WARMING TREND BEGINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-TONIGHT...AFTER A COLD START TO THE MORNING TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...
WHICH IS STILL WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. WIND CHILLS AT 9 AM THIS
MORNING WERE STILL IN THE MID 30S ACROSS ECFL IN MANY PLACES. VERY
DRY ATMOSPHERE PROFILE THIS MORNING FROM KXMR WITH A PWAT AT 0.28
INCHES. SOME STRATOCU ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS MORNING BUT
NORTHWEST WINDS KEEPING IT AWAY FROM COMING INLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY FROM THE WEST SO WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA ALLOWING FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CLEAR SKIES.
WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT. WILL MAKE A DECISION AS
WELL AS COORDINATE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES IN REGARDS TO A POSSIBLE
UPGRADE OF THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING ONCE THE 12Z MODEL
DATA FILTERS IN. AT THE VERY LEAST WILL HAVE A FROST ADVISORY READY
TO GO. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT TO AT LEAST BE A FEW TO SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING OVER MANY AREAS IN ECFL.

SUNDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE TO THE
EAST...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS
THE AREA. WILL SEE VERY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE DURING THE DAY WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK UP INTO THE
MID-UPPER 60S BY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY
SUNNY AND DRY.

WILL UPDATE ZONES SHORTLY TO CLEAN UP WORDING. REST OF FORECAST
PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL KEEP RFW GOING THIS AFTN FOR EXPECTED SEVERAL
HOURS DURATION OF LOW RH VALUES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AND FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR A POTENTIAL RFW
FOR SUNDAY FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
MARTIN AND ST. LUCIE COUNTIES AS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...WNW WINDS STILL 15-20KT AT BUOY 41009 THIS MORNING. MAIN
CHANGE PLANNED WITH NEXT CWF PACKAGE WILL BE TO LEAVE THE CAUTION
HEADLINE IN FOR NEAR SHORE LEG BUT INDICATE DOWNWARD TREND IN WINDS
AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE OFFSHORE LEG THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 20NM-60NM FLAGLER BEACH-JUPITER INLET.
...RED FLAG WARNING ALL ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
...FREEZE WATCH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALL ZONES
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH ALL ZONES EXCEPT SAINT LUCIE AND MARTIN FOR
    SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

SHORT TERM...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM...GLITTO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
511 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2006

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
071700-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO COCOA BEACH 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM COCOA BEACH TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTY-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-
SOUTHERN BREVARD-OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
511 AM EST SAT JAN 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL PERSIST ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S TODAY...READINGS WILL FALL RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNSET UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. FOUR TO SIX
HOURS BELOW FREEZING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT...WITH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY REACHING AS LOW AS 28 TO 30 DEGREES.
PORTIONS OF THE BARRIER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY BREVARD COUNTY
SOUTHWARD...AND PERHAPS MUCH OF MARTIN COUNTY MAY REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. FROST IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS...EVEN
NEAR THE COASTLINE. CHECK FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY
CONCERNING THIS COLD WEATHER EVENT AS FREEZE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE POSTED FOR MUCH OR ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS PLANNING TO VENTURE INTO THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS. BEYOND 20 MILES OFFSHORE...A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEAS UP TO 6
FEET. A TREND OF DIMINISHING WINDS AND SLOWLY SUBSIDING WINDS WILL
BEGIN BY MID DAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
DUE TO CONTINUED DRY VEGETATION AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES...THERE WILL A WILDFIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS BY MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES SUNDAY AS LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS PERSIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

SPRATT