Snow Advisory 5, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
102 PM CST WED MAR 15 2006

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON WINTER STORM FOR THURSDAY.

THINGS STILL IN ORDER FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY. RIDGE DRIFTS EAST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 20S THIS EVENING...THEN
HOLD AS CLOUDS SPILL IN. GOOD PLACE TO START AHEAD OF A WINTER STORM.

VIGOROUS LOOKING S/W MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS AFTN
WITH SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALREAY TAKING PLACE OVR COLORADO. AS H5 S/W
ROCKETS EAST ON THURSDAY...SFC LOW TRACKS FM SCNTRL IA AT 12Z TO
WCNTRL INDIANA VCNTY BY 00Z THU. H8 TRACK DISPLACED ABOUT 100 MI
NORTH OF THE SFC TRACK...BUT STILL SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOOKS LIKE
ENOUGH DRY AIR INITIALLY IN THE LLVS TO CAUSE THE COLUMN TO COOL
ENOUGH TO KEEP PCPN TYPE ALL SNOW. ADDITIONALLY...LOOKS LIKE SNOW
WILL BE INTENSE ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN ENOUGH COOL AIR TO ENSURE AN
ALL SNOW SCENARIO.

SOME OF THE PARTICULARS. CROSS SECTION STILL SHOWS VERY STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS AHEAD OF THE LOW SLOPING FROM BELOW H8 ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH AND RISING TO ABOUT 750MB IN THE NRN CWA. STRONG Q-VETOR
CONVERGENCE AREA OF -20 TO -30 ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BUT WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE ERN CWA. LOOKING AT
POSSIBLE PHASING OF Q-VECTOR FORCING AND INSTABILITY PER THE
SATURATED EQUIVALENT POTENTIAL VORTICITY AND THE ONLY REAL THREAT
ZONE IS IN THE FAR SOUTH AND THAT IS EARLY IN THE MORNING.

THE UVV IS DEEP...HELPED ALONG BY THE SLIGHTLY NEG TILT OF THE H5
S/W AS IT ARRIVES. ISENTROPICALLY...MIXING RATIOS REMAIN JUST OVER
4G/KG AT H8 AND DROP TO ABOUT 3 TO 3.4 AT H75. THIS IS AMPLE
MOISTURE AND CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL...SHOULD EASILY REALIZE SOME 8 TO 9 INCH
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

IT APPEARS THE NE PART OF THE CWA WILL SUFFER QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR INTRUSION...AND WITH THE LOW TAKING A BIT OF A DIVE SE DURING
THE DAY...THAT NE WILL LIKELY MISS OUT ON THE BIG SNOW.

GIVEN ALL THIS WILL HAVE A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY EVENING...EXCEPT FOR SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC WHERE AN
ADVISORY WILL DO. EXPECT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TO BE
A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING...THAT IS WHY I HUNG ONTO THE HEADLINE
INTO THE EVENING.

PRETTY QUIET IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SNOW SHOWING UP MON NGT AND TUESDAY. TEMPS TO TUMBLE AS LOW PASSES
WITH COLD CANADIAN AIR POURING IN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ046-
WIZ047-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-
WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072.

SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ051-WIZ052.

&&

DAVIS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>