Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 111832
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1232 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

WIC055-133-111915-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-060311T1915Z/
WAUKESHA WI-JEFFERSON WI-
1232 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CST
FOR JEFFERSON AND WAUKESHA COUNTIES...

AT 1230 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
 THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR SULLIVAN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
WATERTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAC LA BELLE...OCONOMOWOC AND OCONOMOWOC LAKE BY 1240 PM CST
  MONTEREY...MAPLETON...OKAUCHEE LAKE AND 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  NASHOTAH BY 1245 PM CST
  STONE BANK...NORTH LAKE AND 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF CHENEQUA BY 1250
  PM CST

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4313 8878 4298 8861 4305 8846 4319 8828
      4319 8843 4319 8866

$$

BORGHOFF/REM

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 111845
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1244 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

WIC055-111854-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-060311T1915Z/
JEFFERSON WI-
1244 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT HAD TRIGGERED THE WARNING HAS EXITED THE 
AREA...THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4314 8854 4311 8852 4311 8839 4320 8828
      4320 8841 4320 8849 4320 8854

$$

WIC133-111915-
/O.CON.KMKX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-060311T1915Z/
WAUKESHA WI-
1244 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 PM CST
FOR WAUKESHA COUNTY...

AT 1243 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MONTEREY...OR ABOUT NEAR OKAUCHEE LAKE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NORTH LAKE BY 1250 PM CST

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 4314 8854 4311 8852 4311 8839 4320 8828
      4320 8841 4320 8849 4320 8854

$$
BORGHOFF/REM

000 
WWUS53 KMKX 111854
SVSMKX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1254 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

WIC133-111904-
/O.CAN.KMKX.SV.W.0002.000000T0000Z-060311T1915Z/
WAUKESHA WI-
1254 PM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WAUKESHA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM THAT HAD PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED...THEREFORE THE 
WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4314 8854 4311 8852 4311 8839 4320 8828
      4320 8841 4320 8849 4320 8854

$$

BORGHOFF/KRR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POSSIBLE CONVECTION TODAY AND
SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT. ALSO ON NEXT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH DYNAMICS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
LITTLE CAPE INDICATED...BUT SOME SURFACE BASED NEG BUOY ENERGY
WITH INVERSION TO AROUND 3K FEET. THERE SHOULD BE SOME MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AND WEAK Q CONVERGENCE. LI
REMAINS RELATIVELY STABLE AT AROUND ZERO. THE COLUMN SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY DRY TODAY...BUT WILL BECOME SATURATED THIS EVENING.
WILL LOWER POPS TODAY DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. WILL
MENTION LIKELY POPS THIS EVENING HOWEVER AS MODELS INDICATE A
PERIOD OF STRONG ISENT LIFT WITH A THETA-E RIDGE. H700 OMEGA
SHOULD MAXIMIZE AROUND 03Z. ALSO...MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY STRONG
SHORT WAVE WHICH WILL ADD DYNAMICS TO THE SYSTEM. MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS ARE LARGELY GONE BY AROUND 06Z.

NEXT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL FAVOR GFS TRACK
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN RATHER THAN NAM MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.
UKMET AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE TO GFS TRACK. GFS APPEARS VERY DYNAMIC
WITH 50KT LLJ OVERRUNNING H850 BARO ZONE. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
LF QUAD ACTION FROM H300 110KT JET. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE STRONG
QPV AND Q CONVERGENCE. GFS INDICATES A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG ISENT
LIFT BETWEEN H700 AND H850. ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR SOME MODERATE
RAINS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
437 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-121045-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
437 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

LMZ643>646-665-121045-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
437 AM CST SAT MAR 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND WAVES 3 TO 5
FEET.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED
BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

LOW PRESSURE AND A WARM FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH WAVES.