Severe Thunderstorm Warning 187, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
258 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN ON QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WEEKEND.

ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE TODAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. CAPES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 3K. STRONG MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FORECAST AHEAD OF CDFNT EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING
WESTERN WISCONSIN BY AROUND 18Z. PRECIPITABLE WATER CLOSE TO 2
INCHES. MODELS INDICATE H700 OMEGA OVERLAYING STRONG QCONVERGENCE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION...A STRONG
THETA-E RIDGE...QPV AND ISENT LIFT ARE EXPECTED. THE FRONT IS NOT
FORECAST TO EXIT EASTERN CWA UNTIL AFTER 06Z...THEN MID LEVELS DRY
OUT QUICKLY AND THE DYNAMICS DIMINISH. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DIMINISH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES DURING MAX HEATING. CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ENDING FROM THE WEST EARLY
IN THE EVENING...AND FINALLY ENDING IN THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY...AND LINGERS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
418 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-260930-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
418 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. SOME STORMS OR REPEATING STORMS WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS WHICH HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...THEN
TOWARD EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHING
FROM THE WEST. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LMZ643>646-665-260930-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
418 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR AND JUST
NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN TO EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME WATERSPOUTS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
505 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HAIL             BELMONT                 42.74N 90.33W
08/25/2006  E0.50 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
505 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

WIZ046-047-056-057-062-063-067>069-251100-
COLUMBIA-DANE-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-ROCK-SAUK-
505 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE ENTERING SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

AT 505 AM...THUNDERSTORMS WERE PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
FROM NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE MOVING TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH AND WERE AFFECTING AREAS IN
SOUTHERN IOWA AND LAFAYETTE COUNTY. THESE STORMS WERE PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL AND 1/2 INCH HAIL.  THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PUSH INTO GREEN AND SOUTHERN DANE COUNTIES BY 530 AM.

ELSEWHERE A BAND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED
FROM NEAR FOND DU LAC AND SHEBOYGAN WEST TO AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
MADISON...INTO THE DELLS AREA.

HENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
623 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 AM     HAIL             SHULLSBURG              42.57N 90.23W
08/25/2006  E0.88 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
934 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     HAIL             LOGANVILLE              43.44N 90.04W
08/25/2006  E0.75 INCH       SAUK               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUST TO 40 MPH.

&&

GD