Severe Thunderstorm Warning 135, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
240 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS ON ACTIVE WEATHER WITH PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...ONGOING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS UNDER COLD
POOL OF -16C 500 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AIDED BY LATE ARRIVING LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER LEVEL JET OVER MINNESOTA TO LINGER OVER
CWA THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AS AIR MASS STABILIZES.

IN THE LONG TERM...ATTENTION TURNS SUNDAY TO WEATHER SYSTEM
DESCENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. NGM/GFS/WRF-NAM PROGS STILL
GENERATING INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELD OVER CWA AS
1000/850 MILLIBAR LAYER WIND FIELD TURNS TO SOUTHWEST WITH TIME
AND DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO REGION. DESPITE PROGS
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL TRIGGER AND SOMEWHAT STABLE AIR MASS...WILL
STILL KEEP MENTION OF CHANCY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION
SUNDAY DUE TO PROGGED LOW LEVEL FIELDS.

IN THE LONG LONG TERM...WRF-NAM/GFS PROGS MAINTAIN NORTHWEST
UPPER FLOW WITH PARADE OF SHORT WAVES. MEANWHILE A GRADUAL TURNING
OF LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST WITH
TIME WILL INCREASE HEAT AND MOISTURE. THUS PATTERN FORCES A
MENTION OF CHANCY PRECIPITATION VIRTUALLY UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
305 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-231100-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
305 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-231100-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
305 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
454 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-222254-
COLUMBIA-DANE-DODGE-FOND DU LAC-GREEN-GREEN LAKE-IOWA-JEFFERSON-
KENOSHA-LAFAYETTE-MARQUETTE-MILWAUKEE-OZAUKEE-RACINE-ROCK-SAUK-
SHEBOYGAN-WALWORTH-WASHINGTON-WAUKESHA-
454 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

...EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS WERE SCATTERED ALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING QUICKLY WITH THE SETTING SUN.

A FEW OF THE STORMS HAVE REACHED SEVERE LEVELS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE STRONGEST STORM LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST LAFAYETTE COUNTY...
NEAR SOUTH WAYNE. ONE INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  THE
STORM WAS MOVING TO THE SOUTH AT 10 MPH AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
ILLINOIS BEFORE 530 PM.

MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS WERE PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND BRIEF
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ONE INCH OF RAIN IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES IS
POSSIBLE. SOME BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS...AND ROADS IN
URBAN AREAS...IS POSSIBLE.

REMAIN ALERT TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

DAVIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
456 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             GRATIOT                 42.58N 90.02W
07/22/2006  E0.50 INCH       LAFAYETTE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0452 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW MADISON            43.07N 89.40W
07/22/2006  E58.00 MPH       DANE               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GD

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