Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
200 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON HANDLING POPS TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING.

VERY COMPLICATED WX PATTERN THE NEXT 36HRS WITH 3 DISTINCT FEATURES
PLAYING PARTS IN THE SCENARIO TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  H5
S/W WITH A SIGNIFICANT THERMODYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION ASSOC WITH H8
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE SOUTH IS GENERATING LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS FM
SRN WI BACK SOUTHWEST INTO IL/IA.  THEN THERE IS THE ROGUE MCV
DROPPING OUT OF SE SDKTA ERLY THIS AFTN...WITH A PRONOUNCED
CIRCULATION SEEN IN THE RADAR LOOP.  THIS FEATURE HAS A MIND OF IT/S
OWN AND NOT HANDLED BY THE MODELS AT ALL. THIS IS A LONG LIVED
COMPLEX FROM LAST NIGHT. WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS IT IS TURNING
EASTERLY...BUT NOT ENTIRLY SURE THIS WILL SURVIVE INTO THE EVENING...
ESPECIALLY AS IT PUSHES INTO AIR ALREADY MASSSAGED BY THE RAINFALL
DOWNSTREAM TODAY.  THE THIRD ELEMENT IS THE NEXT H5 S/W PUSHING EAST
OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND PROGD TO TRACK OVR LK SUPR AND NRN WI ON
SAT.  THE SCENARIO HAS BEEN THAT THE 1ST AND 3RD FEATURES WOULD
INTERACT WITH TIME...PRODUCING AN INVERTED SFC TROF OVER THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DYNAMICS ALONG THE
SRN H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE WOULD OCCUR TONIGHT...WITH AN INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPING TO THE NW FM THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE H5 S/W TO THE NORTH.

THIS FIRST BATCH OF PRECIP SHOULD MOSTLY MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURING ON LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
SURGE INTO MIDDLE OF CWA...BUT PROFILERS AND MORNING RAOB DATA SHOW
THE LLV JET TURNING WESTERLY TO THE SOUTH WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FOR
PROLONGED LIFT THIS FAR NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. WOULD LIKE TO
DIMINISH PRECIP TO A SLIGHT CHANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT...THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING AS AREA IS BETWEEN SYSTEMS DURING THIS TIME. AS UPR S/W TO
THE NORTH CLIPS THE AREA ON SATURDAY ACCOMPANIED BY INVERTED SFC
TROF...LINGERING MOISTURE AND AFTN HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO JUSTIFY THE SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF
CANADIAN FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DAVIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1100 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-180945-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
1100 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING OVER ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE SEVERAL
THREATS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IN
ADDITION THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
90S PRODUCING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 105. PERSONS SENSITIVE
TO THE HEAT...OR THOSE WITH HEALTH PROBLEMS SHOULD TAKE
PRECAUTIONS TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION OR HEAT STROKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM REEDSBURG TO MILWAUKEE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-180945-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
1100 AM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM TODAY DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. A WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...AND AGAIN SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

COLLAR

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