Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
130 PM CDT SUN JUL 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY...THEN NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP MIDWEEK.

STRONG UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE IN THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE THE ERN GRT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AT
UPR LEVELS...BEST UPPER DIFLUENCE AND Q-G FORCING SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF MY CWA (OVR NORTHERN LOWER MI) CLOSER TO BETTER HEIGHT
FALLS...ALTHOUGH BOTH GFS/NAM-WRF DO INDICATE A MODERATE H7-H5
Q-VECTOR CONVRG MOVG THRU THE AREA BETWEEN 18Z-06Z (ASSOCD WITH
TRALING VORT MAX). BETTER FORCING TO COME FROM LOWER LEVELS AS
MODELS AGREE IN DRAGGING A POTENT SFC TROF/COLD FRONT THRU THE
FORECAST AREA GENERALLY FROM LATE AFTN INTO EVENING HOURS (22Z-06Z).
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS AND IMPRESSIVE 0-2KM CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF FRONT
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT TO INITIATE...DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION.

MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDIDICATING ALMOST 1900 J/KG OF MLCAPE FOR
KMKE VALID AT 23Z SUN...WITH MID 80S AND 66 DEW POINT. THERMAL RIDGE
AHEAD OF FRONT. THIS COMBINED WITH A 500 MB 45KT JET ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE SHOULD PRODUCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6KM) VALUES IN THE
UPPER 30 TO LOWER 40S KNOT RANGE OVR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...PROVIDING SOME STORM ORGANIZATION. STEEP LOW-LVL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR RESULTING IN DCAPE VALUES NR
1000 J/KG AROUND 00Z...WITH WET BULB ZERO AROUND 9600 FT BEFORE
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THUS THE  POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE LINE REMAINS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
HOWEVER 0-3KM HELICITY HAS INCREASED TO 150-200 M2/SEC2 IN THE
SOUTHEAST...SO SOME SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXIISTS.

ALSO SOME MARINE CONCERNS...AS COLD FRONT MOVG DOWN LAKESHORE THIS
AFTN EXPECTED TO PROVIDE A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY
N/NE WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS LIKELY BEHIND FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.

MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME INDICATION OF LOW CLOUDS BEHIND
FRONT...AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGRY SHOWING MORE OF A BROKEN CLOUD
AREA.

SFC HIGH SHOULD BUILD INTO GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY FOR
DRY...BUT COOLER CONDITIONS AS SFC WINDS MAINTAIN AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER HI TEMPS COULD STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE MID 70S ALONG THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

DRY CONDITIONS SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
COMMENCES ON TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THRU THE AREA.

GFS NOW BACKING OFF ON NORTHWARD PUSH OF PRECIP. HOWEVER NAM SHOWING
PRECIP WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2 INCHES. WILL PUSH UP THE GREATEST
POP CHANCES TO TUESDAY NIGHT.  WITH THE VERY TROPICAL AMS IN
PLACE...WILL HAVE TO KEEP EYE ON HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE GFS FLIP FLOP ON NORTHWARD EXTENT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT
MENTION HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL YET IN THE ZONES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HENTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
447 AM CDT SUN JUL 9 2006

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-101000-
MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE-
WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE-
LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA-
447 AM CDT SUN JUL 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN...REACHING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SWING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
TO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING.

THE SUN WILL BE OUT MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALLOW FOR THE HUMID
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
BY THE EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY AND THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS SUGGESTS THAT HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

LMZ643>646-665-101000-
SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON-
PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE-
NORTH POINT LIGHTHOUSE TO WIND POINT-
WIND POINT TO WINTHROP HARBOR ILLINOIS-
WISCONSIN ADJACENT OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN TO MID LAKE-
447 AM CDT SUN JUL 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN...REACHING
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...A
POTENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SWING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM LAKE SUPERIOR
TO CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN BY THIS EVENING.

THE SUN WILL BE OUT MUCH OF THE DAY AND ALLOW FOR THE HUMID
AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY THE
AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE EVENING HOURS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

CONDITIONS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BECOME RATHER ROUGH THIS
EVENING AS GUSTY NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FEET AND THERE
WILL BE LOCAL RIP TIDES DURING THE NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL.

CRAVEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
725 PM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S WEST ALLIS          42.95N 88.03W
07/09/2006                   MILWAUKEE          WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 FOOT DIAMETER TREE AND WIRES DOWN AT 105TH STREET AND
            BELOIT ROAD.

&&

DRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
734 PM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             5 SW MILWAUKEE          43.01N 88.04W
07/09/2006  E0.50 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORNER OF 60TH STREET AND OKLAHOMA AVENUE.

&&

DRH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
753 PM CDT SUN JUL 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HAIL             4 WSW MILWAUKEE         43.04N 88.04W
07/09/2006  E0.50 INCH       MILWAUKEE          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0739 PM     HAIL             BROOKFIELD              43.06N 88.12W
07/09/2006  E0.25 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0734 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW SHOREWOOD HILLS    43.07N 89.46W
07/09/2006  E60 MPH          DANE               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

0741 PM     HAIL             1 SW BROOKFIELD         43.05N 88.13W
07/09/2006  M0.75 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

0740 PM     HAIL             BROOKFIELD              43.06N 88.12W
07/09/2006  M0.75 INCH       WAUKESHA           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

0748 PM     HAIL             1 NW MCFARLAND          43.03N 89.31W
07/09/2006  E1.75 INCH       DANE               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

DRH

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