Heat Advisory 2, NWS Milwaukee, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 AM CDT SUN JUL 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN THEME WILL BE HOT AND HUMID THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AS NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONT NOT DUE UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

IN SHORT TERM...SEVERE MCS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN RIDING ALONG THE
EDGE OF SIGNIFICANT 700 MB CAP. HOWEVER...GFS/NAM/RUC ALL HINT ON
ISOLATED STORMS EITHER FROM REMNANTS OF MCS CLIPPING MAINLY
NORTHEAST PART OF CWA OR FROM ACCAS BOMBS ON TOP OF CAP. THERE WAS
A COUPLE OF ATTEMPTS AT THIS EARLIER IN WESTERN PORTION OF CWA AS
SOME 50 DBZ ECHOES DID DEVELOP BRIEFLY WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SINCE WARMEST 700 MB TEMPS ARE WEST WENT AHEAD AND LEFT OUT
PRECIP FAR WEST AND JUST ISOLATED CENTRAL AND EAST TODAY.

ALTHOUGH RADAR LOOKS PRETTY SCARY AS STORMS SURGE SOUTH
CURRENTLY...DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW MCS CAN TURN TO FAR SOUTH WITHOUT
SUFFERING THE FATE OF THE DEATH CAP WITH +14C OR WARMER AT 700 MB.
THUS...EXPECT IT TO RIDE THE ISOTHERMS EAST SOUTHEAST AND STAY
JUST NORTH OF CWA. WILL BE A CLOSE CALL THOUGH.

WITH SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND LAKE BREEZE LIKELY TODAY WITH WEAK
GRADIENT...LEFT COASTAL COUNTIES OUT OF HEAT ADVISORY TODAY BUT
WENT AHEAD WITH HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT OTHERWISE.
EVEN LIMITING DEWPOINTS TO 75 TODAY HAVE SEVERAL HOURS AT OR ABOVE
105 ON THE HEAT INDEX CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES.

GFS MAV MOS YIELDS 100 DEGREE HEAT ON MONDAY. LOOKING AT 850 MB
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY FOR GFS...IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SEE HOW WE COULD GET MUCH ABOVE THE MIDDLE 90S DURING THE EVENT.
HOWEVER...MODERATE WESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD RESULT IN
DOWNSLOPE IN THE COASTAL AREAS MONDAY SO WENT AHEAD WITH UPPER
90S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH MAY SEE MORE MIXING OF THE
DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IT SHOULD BE HOTTER
AND COVER THE 105 HEAT INDEX FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL HOURS.

GFS AND 18Z DGEX ONLY TEASES THE NORTHERN CWA FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT SO HAVE HIGHEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AND WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ON POPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

SIGNIFICANT COOLING ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL
NEARLY 15 C TO ABOUT 10 C FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GUIDANCE KEEPS
TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMO LEVELS BUT 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT
HIGHS IN THE 70S. FOR NOW WILL ROLL WITH GUIDANCE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ052-
WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071-WIZ072.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ046-
WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ056-WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-
WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070.

&&

MVK/11    - SHORT TERM & AVIATION
CRAVEN/02 - LONG TERM

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