Tornado Warning 27, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

000 
WWUS52 KMHX 312320
SVSMHX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
721 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

NCC049-312330-
/O.CON.KMHX.TO.W.0027.000000T0000Z-060831T2330Z/
CRAVEN NC-
721 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR CRAVEN
COUNTY...

AT 716 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A TORNADO.  THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR HAVELOCK...MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
  NEUSE FOREST BY 730 PM EDT

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM EDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-800-889-6889...WHEN YOU CAN
DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3484 7690 3484 7677 3487 7669 3510 7702
      3493 7711

$$

26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...T.S. ERNESTO APPROACHING
THE CAROLINA COAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MUCH
OF THE CWA TONIGHT. SEE LATEST TPC ADVISORY AND LOCAL HLS FOR MORE
DETAILED INFORMATION. THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD COME
TO AN END BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO MOVE
NORTH OF THE REGION. UPPER TROUGHING AND A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL BE
LEFT BEHIND IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM THROUGH SAT WITH A
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK...AND WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...CONTINUED THREAT FOR
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECETD EACH DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. STRONGER HIGH PRESS TO THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST AND
PUSH THE FRONT TO THE S OF THE FA LATE WED INTO THU.

&&

.AVIATION...AREA TAFS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING TO VFR OUTSIDE
RAIN AREAS...BUT AS SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...STILL
ANTICIPATE LARGE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS THRU MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...ERNESTO HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
BORDER OF NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET LATER THIS
EVENING. WILL HOLD FINAL FCST UNTIL AFTER 4 PM CONFERENCE CALL...BUT
ANTICIPATE DETERIOTATING CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS OCCURRING IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT ERNESTO WILL EXIT THE AREA FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
FRIDAY WITH SEAS DIMINISHING BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL FOLLOWED BY A
LIGHT GRADIENT INTO THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-
     104 UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY.
  ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR NCZ095-098 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
  ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ045>047-080-081-093>095-098-103-
     104 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
  ...INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ029-044-079-090>092 FROM
     10 PM THURSDAY TO 10 AM FRIDAY.
MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158
     UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
  ...HURRICANE WATCH FOR AMZ158 UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...PRINGLE
LONG TERM...PRINGLE
AVIATION...COLLINS
MARINE...COLLINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
521 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-010930-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
521 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ENTIRE COAST TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ONSLOW AND CARTERET
COUNTIES ALONG WITH THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7
INCHES AND LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES OR MORE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO MOVES NORTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TROPICAL SYSTEM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING ENDING THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING THREAT. PLEASE SEE
THE LATEST ADVISORIES CONCERNING ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-010930-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
521 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO AFFECT THE CAROLINAS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM
CAPE LOOKOUT SOUTH...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND SOUNDS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES CONCERNING ERNESTO FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH OF THE WATERS
FRIDAY WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.