Tornado Warning 22, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
238 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL
TODAY WITH THE NAM TOO DRY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING JUST NORTH THROUGH WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECTING CONVECTION TO FORM/MOVE INTO IN OUR AREA
SHORTLY. ONCE IT DOES...GOOD COVERAGE EXPECTED WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. BUMPED POPS BACK UP TO LIKELY TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND WILL BE JUST TO THE
SOUTH AT 12Z WEDNESDAY WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. I KEPT LIKELY POPS IN FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN
TAPERED THEM BACK TO CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FOCUS OF PRECIP
WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH. GFS SHOWS A VORT SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE SUPPLY IS NOT THAT GREAT SO ONLY
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM THE
NORTH AND THE FRONT TAPS INTO THE MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. MODELS
ARE SHOWING GOOD AREAL COVERAGE ON FRIDAY BUT FOR NOW KEPT POPS AT
40%.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...AFTERNOON PRECIP WILL
CARRY OVER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT SO KEPT THE CHANCE POPS GOING. THE
FRONT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY THROUGH  THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY I KEPT
ONLY 20-30% POPS AS OUR AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN THE SURFACE RIDGE
PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH. ON MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT. A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THEN
SETS UP BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT FRONT DUE TO ARRIVE AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT TSRA BEGINNING TO DVLP N AND W. GOOD
CONVERGENCE/INSTAB ACRS ERN NC AND EXPECT TSRA TO DVLP/INCREASE IN
CVRG THIS AFTN AND EVENING. WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE STORMS...COULD ALSO SEE SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM N TO S LATER
TONIGHT AS FRONT MOVES THRU. COULD STILL SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LVLS REMAIN RATHER MOIST WITH DEVELOPING NE
FLOW ESPCLY SRN TIER.

&&

.MARINE..OUTFLOW FORM OFFSHR CONVECTION HAS KEPT S/SW WINDS GUSTY
OVER WTRS BETWEEN LOOKOUT AND HAT. THESE WINDS SHLD DECREASE THIS
AFTN/EVENING AS FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO N/NE OVERNIGHT
AS FRONT SAGS S THRU THE REGION WITH DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA. FRONT
WILL STALL TO S WED THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THU. E TO NE WINDS
EXPECTED WED INTO WED NIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO MORE SE THU. SPEEDS
MAINLY AOB 15KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NE THU NIGHT AND CROSS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. GFS SHOWS TIGHT
GRDNT DEVELOPING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH DECENT HIGH BUILDING S.
THIS IS A BIT UNUSUAL FOR MID AUGUST BUT MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT.
STILL UNDERCUT WINDS AND SEAS A BIT WITH POSS SCA SAT CNTRL/NRN
WTRS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN DECREASE SUN AS HIGH BUILDS OVER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

HSA/RF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
443 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-090845-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
443 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE EVENING
HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH POSSIBLE.

THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100
AND 104 OVER INLAND COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-090845-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
443 AM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR COASTAL WATERS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

NCZ103-081930-
EASTERN DARE-
229 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DARE COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 229 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
DUCK TO 12 MILES WEST OF DUCK...OR FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF DUCK TO 7
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GRANDY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR DUCK AT 250 PM EDT...KILL DEVIL HILLS AT
330 PM EDT..

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING AN
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

20

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
515 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

NCZ045-082200-
WASHINGTON-
515 PM EDT TUE AUG 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WASHINGTON COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
EDT...

AT 515 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
WASHINGTON COUNTY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF EDENTON...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
SCUPPERNONG AT 535 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE
STORMS INCLUDE PHELPS LAKE AND ROPER.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON AREA
ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THIS STORM IS PRODUCING AN EXCESSIVE
AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

20