Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF FROPA TNGT BTWN THE MDLS. GFS IS A FEW HRS FASTER THAN
NAM12 AND PNAM...BUT THEY ALL AGREE ON BRINGG PCPN INTO WRN CWA ARND
21Z. AM STILL NOT CONVINCED IT WL BE THAT EARLY...BUT CARRYING A
SLGT CHC WONT HURT. BEST OMEGA WONT MV OVR CWA TIL AFT 00Z. CAPES
NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSV...BEING CONFINED MAINLY TO THE CST. HWVR
DECENT K INDICES IN THE 30S. AFT FROPA FLO WL TURN QUICKLY BACK TO
SW AHD OF NXT SHOT. THIS ONE APPRS TO BE DRY AND IS XPCTD THRU THE
AREA FRI NGT. UPR LO APPRS TO FINALLY BE LIFTG OUT OF THE GRT LKS
STATES THIS WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...WE RMN IN AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE XTNDD. AFT MAIN UPR TROF SWINGS THRU SAT WE
WL BE ON BACK SIDE OF TROF THRU MIDWK. SERIES OF WK WVS WL MV THRU
THE FLO PUSHG WK BNDRYS THRU CWA. DGEX AND GFS BOTH AGREE ON
THIS...BUT NOT SO MUCH ON TIMING. BOTH AGREE BEST CHC FOR PCPN IN
XTNDD WL BE ON WED. DGEX IS DRIER THAN GFS...WHICH IS A KNOWN GFS
BIAS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HPC KEEPS IT DRY AND THIS IS THE
PREFERRED WAY TO GO ATTM. TEMPS WL BE SEASONABLE...70 AND 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL MOSTLY CLEAR BUT CLOUDS APPROACHING RAPIDLY FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOW LEVELS WILL BE RATHER DRY SO CLOUD
BASES GENERALLY NO LOWER THAN AROUND 4KFT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS AFTER ABOUT 05-07Z. ONLY BROKEN MID DECK AFTER THAT
THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING...THEN ONLY BROKEN CIRRUS AFTER THAT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN
VEERING TO WEST DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS HAVE BEEN STEADILY INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MARINE ZONES SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED SMALL CRAFT TO
INCLUDE THE WATERS NORTH OF OREGON INLET. SO THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THE PAMLICO
SOUND THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. FOR THE ALBEMARLE I CAPPED WINDS AT 20
KNOTS AND KEPT THE EXERCISE CAUTION. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
TIMEFRAME SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT TOO HIGH.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158 UNTIL 2
PM FRIDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...CGG
LONG TERM...CGG
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
904 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

NCZ029-044>046-079>081-090>093-098-190200-
TYRRELL-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-JONES-LENOIR-GREENE-CRAVEN-MAINLAND
HYDE-WASHINGTON-MARTIN-ONSLOW-PITT-
904 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

...STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW...HYDE...CRAVEN...
BEAUFORT...TYRRELL...PITT...MARTIN...WASHINGTON...GREENE...LENOIR...
JONES AND DUPLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 900 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM FROM WILLIAMSTON IN MARTIN
COUNTY...TO KINSTON IN GREENE COUNTY...AND WARSAW IN DUPLIN COUNTY. THIS LINE
WAS MOVING EAST AROUND 35 MPH. THIS LINE WILL EVENTUALLY IMPACT COUNTIES
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING ONSLOW...CRAVEN...AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES THROUGH
945 PM. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
921 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             AYDEN                   35.47N 77.42W
05/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       PITT               NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED PEA TO PENNY SIZE HAIL IN AYDEN

&&

JELARDO

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
938 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     HAIL             WINTERVILLE             35.53N 77.40W
05/18/2006  E0.75 INCH       PITT               NC   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL

&&

JELARDO

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