Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
421 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA SINCE LATE
MORNING ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND HAVE PRODUCED HAIL UP TO
PENNY SIZE. ADDITIONALLY...MORE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO
THE CWA FROM THE WEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 2 INCHES AND EVEN A
FEW TORNADOES ACROSS CENTRAL NC. A TORNADO WATCH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC UNTIL 10 PM.

THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 10 PM AND WITH
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD SUBSIDE. HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...REMAINING NEAR NRN KY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER EASTERN NC CONTINUING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO
QUICKLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND THE SURFACE FRONT
WILL PUSH OFFSHORE...HOWEVER THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE APPALACHIANS KEEPING THE REGION UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
SWD TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEK WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE RGN EARLY THIS EVENING
SHOULD PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT PERSIST FOR LONG THOUGH AS CONVECTION
PUSHES THROUGH THE RGN. ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY LATER
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE RGN TONIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THIS
FRONT DO NOT APPEAR VERY STRONG SO SOME FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY WITH MVFR VSBYS LIKELY.

&&

.MARINE...BUOY DATA MISSING FOR MOST OF THE DAY BUT ONCE IT
STARTED FLOWING AGAIN NOTED THAT WINDS AND SEAS WERE A BIT HIGHER
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THINK THIS IS POTENTIALLY A PROBLEM
AGAIN TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE RGN
FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR GRADIENT TO INCREASE MORE ALONG THE LINES
OF NAM WINDS TONIGHT SO HAVE BUMPED WINDS UP FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. HAVE ALSO GONE WITH HIGHER SEAS INITIALLY THAN WW3 BASED
ON WINDS BEING A BIT STRONGER THAN GFS FORECAST. THIS THROWS US
INTO SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE THIS EVENING
OR OVERNIGHT. WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NRN WATERS LIKELY TO DECREASE
FASTER MONDAY THAN OTHER AREAS AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING SEAS SO WILL DROP SCA THERE DURING THE DAY MONDAY.

SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST LONGER FROM OREGON INLET
SOUTH...FALLING BELOW SCA CRITERIA FROM LOOKOUT SOUTH MONDAY
AFTERNOON THEN HANGING ON FROM OREGON INLET TO LOOKOUT UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER THAN GFS WINDS FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TIME FRAME GIVEN PRESENCE OF COLD FRONT.
ALSO WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE WW3 GUIDANCE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH GFS SOLUTION AFTER TUESDAY WITH WW3
USED AS A GUIDE FOR SEAS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SLOWLY INCREASE AGAIN BY FRI
AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ152-154-156 FROM 11 PM SUNDAY TO 2
     PM TUESDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150 FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM
     MONDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ158 FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 2 PM
     MONDAY.
&&

SEK/MLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
430 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>094-104-150830-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-
MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
430 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS
TODAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-170-150830-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO SURF CITY NC FROM 20 TO
40 NM-
430 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS
TODAY. BOATERS SHOULD EXPECT STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS IN
AND NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ095-098-103-150830-
CARTERET-ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-
430 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA WILL PRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS
TODAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STORMS WILL STRONG DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
502 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     HAIL             7 WSW COLUMBIA          35.88N 76.37W
05/14/2006  M0.88 INCH       TYRRELL            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            CORRECTED, REPORT IS FROM TYRRELL COUNTY

&&

KLAWS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
519 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

NCZ047-103-142215-
OUTER BANKS DARE-MAINLAND DARE-
519 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT DARE COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 519 PM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DUCK...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTH OF GRANDY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR DUCK AT 530 PM EDT. OTHER
LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE SOUTHERN SHORES.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. MOST LIGHTNING FATALITIES AND
INJURIES OCCUR IN OPEN AREAS OR UNDER TREES. IF OUTDOORS...SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING OR CAR. DO NOT TAKE SHELTER IN SMALL
SHEDS...UNDER ISOLATED TREES...OR IN CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILES.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

8

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
536 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     TORNADO          8 ENE ROPER             35.92N 76.49W
05/14/2006                   WASHINGTON         NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PUBLIC REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO, DAMAGE TO SEVERAL TREES
            AND A HOUSE

&&

KLAWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
626 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 PM     TORNADO          6 NW CRESWELL           35.93N 76.47W
05/14/2006                   WASHINGTON         NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO IN PEA RIDGE. EIGHT LARGE TREES
            UPROOTED. STRUCTURAL DAMAGE TO MOBILE HOME AND OUT
            BUILDING. UPDATE TO PRIOR REPORT PROVIDED BY EM.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
654 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     SCUPPERNONG             35.91N 76.46W
05/14/2006  E60 MPH          WASHINGTON         NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
835 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     TORNADO          BETHEL                  35.81N 77.38W
05/14/2006                   PITT               NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO ALONG HIGHWAY 64 NEAR
            BETHEL MOVING EAST.

&&