Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Newport/Morehead City, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
800 PM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BECOMING A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AS
LIFT INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING SFC FRONT AND UPPER TROF. LOW
LVL SRLY INFLOW ALSO INCREASING WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH PWATS HIER
ALONG THE COAST. CELLS APPROACHING COAST STILL LOSING A BIT OF THEIR
INTENSITY AS THEY PASS OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WHILE ACTIVITY
OVER THE GULF STREAM IS REALLY BEGINNING TO LIGHT UP. EVENING RAOB
SHOWS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RECENT
RUNS OF RUC ALSO INDICATING A MORE UNIFORM PROFILE WRT DIRECTION IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME SPEED SHEAR INDICATED BUT NOT AS MUCH AS
FORECAST BY RUC. THINK GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY
CONFINED TO NEAR COASTAL SECTIONS LATE THIS EVENING BUT COOLER AIR
OVERLYING SHELF WATERS ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP A LOW LVL INVERSION AS
NOTED IN RAOB. THIS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL AS FULL FORCE OF WINDS MAY
NOT BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE SFC LATE THIS EVENING. STILL WOULD NOT
RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE GIVEN FORECAST WINDS IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL NOT PLAN A FLOW BLOWN UPDATE BUT WILL FRESHEN
UP GRIDS WITH CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...STILL MAINLY VFR BUT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THIS EVENING. AS TSTMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS WILL SEE MORE
WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME BRIEF POCKETS OF IFR POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE WITH BUOY 41025 BUSTING TO NEAR
30 KTS NOW. WHILE SOME OF THIS MAY BE CONVECTIVE GRADIENT WINDS
SHOULD ALSO PICK UP. WILL SEE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SEAS LATE
TONIGHT THEN A SWITCH TO WESTERLY WINDS. PRES RISES WELL TO THE WEST
WOULD TEND TO INDICATE QUITE STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT MRNG. WINDS FOR SAT
MAY BE A BIT STRONGER THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE BUT BY AFTN WILL
DECREASE BEFORE UPPER LOW AND ASCD COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS ANOTHER
SURGE AND STRONGER WINDS BY LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. FOR NOW WILL
PLAN ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS IN
WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR AMZ152-154-156-158 FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM
     SATURDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ130-135 FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
     SATURDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AMZ150 FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 7 PM
     MONDAY.
&&

MLF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
238 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-
103-104-140745-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-MARTIN-PITT-
WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-
DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
238 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING...VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES WILL BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. IT APPEARS THE BEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 9 PM AND 5 AM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

RF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
100 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

NCZ044-079-090>093-098-140700-
DUPLIN-JONES-LENOIR-GREENE-CRAVEN-ONSLOW-PITT-
100 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ONSLOW...CRAVEN...PITT...
GREENE...LENOIR...JONES AND DUPLIN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EST...

AT 100 AM EST...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20 MILES NORTH
OF WARSAW TO 31 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALLACE...OR FROM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MAR-MAC TO 23 MILES WEST OF WRIGHTSBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WALLACE AT
110 AM EST...LA GRANGE AT 125 AM EST...BEULAVILLE AT 130 AM EST...
SNOW HILL AT 135 AM EST...KINSTON AT 140 AM EST. OTHER LOCATIONS TO
BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE GREENVILLE...JACKSONVILLE...
KENANSVILLE AND TRENTON.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 AM EST SATURDAY MORNING
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

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