Winter Storm Warning 1, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
315 AM PST SUN JAN 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...A VERY VIGOROUS SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE COAST THIS
MORNING. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY SURFACING AT THIS TIME IN
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AT 127W. STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY AND OROGRAPHIC LIFTING
WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS ALOFT TO CREATE VERY GOOD
VERTICAL MOISTURE IN EXTREME NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. THE REGION WILL BE IN THE Y OF A SPLITTING JET
WITH STRONG DIFLUENCE ALOFT COMBINING WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THIS WILL BRING HIGH QPF
AMOUNTS TO THE SISKIYOUS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES. THE
TRICKY PART WILL BE THE SNOW LEVELS. STRONG WINDS AND HIGH PRECIP
RATES WILL CAUSE THE SNOW LEVELS TO VARY BY AS MUCH AS SEVERAL
THOUSAND FEET OVER A SHORT DISTANCE...BUT GENERALLY BE IN THE 3500
TO 4000 FOOT RANGE IN THE WARNING AREA. AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS MORE
TIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ENTRAINING THE COLD AIR ALOFT...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE EAST SIDE SEEING
GENERALLY SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS. AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH A
COLD SHOWERY PATTERN REMAINS WITH THE NEXT WEAKER SYSTEM SEEING A
DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE TRAIL END AS LOW AS 2000 FEET.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK IN THE ACTIVE
PATTERN AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA TUESDAY WITH ONLY WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEN LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AND
STRONG WINDS  TO THE AREA AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS FOLLOWED
BY A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING BEFORE ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ARRIVES IN THE NORTHWEST AT THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE COMING ASHORE THIS MORNING
BRINGING VERY STRONG WINDS TO THE COAST AND THE SHASTA VALLEY. MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH HIGHER TERRAIN OBSCURED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. IFR
CONDITIONS SPREAD TO EAST OF THE CASCADES THIS EVENING.

WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FLORENCE TO CA
      BORDER 0-60 NM.
     STORM WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
      AFTERNOON FLORENCE TO CA BORDER 0-60 NM.
     FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH FORK OF THE
      COQUILLE RIVER AT MYRTLE POINT.
     FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COQUILLE RIVER AT
      COQUILLE.
     FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR NORTH FORK OF THE COQUILLE RIVER
      AT MYRTLE POINT.
     FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SPRAGUE RIVER AT
      BEATTY.
     FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE UMPQUA RIVER AT ELKTON.
     FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ROGUE RIVER FROM AGNESS
      TO GOLD BEACH.
     FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ROGUE RIVER AT GOLD RAY.
     FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ROGUE RIVER AT GRANTS
      PASS.
     HIGH WIND WARNING COASTAL ZONES 21-22 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
      THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
     HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR ZONES 21 AND 22 EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
      THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
     SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR OR ZONES 25...28 AND 29 FOR TONIGHT.

CA...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS OR BORDER TO
      PT ST GEORGE CA 0-60 NM.
     STORM WARNING IN EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
      BORDER TO PT ST GEORGE CA 0-60 NM.
     FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE KLAMATH RIVER AT SEIAD
      VALLEY...
     FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SCOTT RIVER AT FORT
      JONES.
     WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY CA
       ZONE 81.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING ZONES
      80...81...82 AND 83.
     SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR CA ZONES 84 AND 85 FOR TONIGHT.
&&

SVEN

ALSO VISIT THE NWS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MEDFORD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
203 AM PST SUN JAN 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNE SCOTTSBURG        43.67N 123.81W
12/31/2005  1.13 INCH        DOUGLAS            OR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PAST 24 HRS ENDING AT 10 PM.

&&

GERIG