High Wind Watch 11, NWS Medford, OR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
900 AM PDT FRI APR 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INLAND THIS
MORNING WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND RAIN NORTH OF OUR AREA IN THE
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. NAM FORECAST
MODEL INDICATES THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE UMPQUA DIVIDE UNTIL THIS EVENING. WILL UPDATE THE ZONE FORECAST
TO LOWER FIRST PERIOD POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY INSTEAD OF LIKELY FOR
SOUTHERN OREGON AND SISKIYOU COUNTY IN NORTHERN CAL.

A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE COAST IN ABOUT 24 HOURS
WITH A BAND OF HIGH WINDS EVIDENT JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE COAST WITH THE MORNING UPDATE.
THE OTHER MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING WILL BE HOW LOW TO BRING THE
SNOW LEVELS AND DISTRIBUTION OF PRECIP TOTALS. THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT A SNOW LEVEL AROUND 2500 FT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
BUT THE SHORTER NIGHTTIME PERIOD NOW WERE INTO SPRING MEANS THE SNOW
LEVELS HAVE TO BE TRIMMED BACK TO INDICATE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF SNOW
EXPECTED DURING THE NIGHT AND WHERE IT COULD PERSIST INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS SUNDAY. NAM MODEL SHOWING A PRONOUNCED RAIN SHADOW EFFECT LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND
850-700 MB WINDS ARE SOUTHWEST AND LOADED WITH MOISTURE. SOUTHERN
CURRY AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTIES WILL BEAR THE BRUNT OF PRECIP
THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER MAXIMA SHOWING UP IN THE SOUTHERN CASCADES.
THE ROGUE AND SCOTT VALLEYS WILL SEE RAIN SHADOW EFFECTS TO VARYING
DEGREES AND PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER EAST OF THE
CASCADE RANGE. SO WHILE POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL...PRECIP TOTALS FOR
THE WEEKEND WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM SEVERAL INCHES IN SOUTHERN CURRY
COUNTY TO LESS THAN 0.10 INCH EAST OF THE CASCADES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY APPEARS DRY AND WARM AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE WEST COAST. THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING THE
RIDGE AND DEEPENING ITS COMPLEMENTARY TROUGH NEAR 145W THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...AND IS FAVORED OVER THE GFS FOR THAT REASON.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY DETERIORATING TO AREAS OF
MVFR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT REACHES THE COAST AND
MOVES INLAND. AREAS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY NORTH OF THE UMPQUA
DIVIDE AND ALONG THE OREGON COAST NORTH OF GOLD BEACH.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WATCH ORZ021-22 SATURDAY.
CA...NONE.

&&

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