Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Miami, FL

730 
WWUS52 KMFL 061512
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1109 AM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

FLC021-061530-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0080.000000T0000Z-060706T1530Z/
COLLIER FL-
1109 AM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM EDT
FOR EASTERN COLLIER COUNTY...

AT 1104 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS 
NEAR 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF BIG CYPRESS 
ACCESS AREAS OFF ALLIGATOR ALLEY...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF 
OCHOPEE...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND SR 839...COLLIER/BROWARD LINE AND
ALLIGATOR ALLEY...MICCOSUKEE INDIAN RESERVATION...MILE MARKER 60 ON 
ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND COLLIER COUNTY REST AREA ON ALLIGATOR 
ALLEY...BIG CYPRESS REFUGE.

WINDS UP TO 53 MPH WERE REPORTED IN EVERGLADES CITY AFTER THE 
THUNDERSTORM MOVED THROUGH. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE MOST LIKELY 
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE THUNDERSTORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM...SEEK SAFE SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS!

LAT...LON 2588 8138 2582 8089 2624 8089 2621 8128

$$

PFOST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
946 AM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

.UPDATE...UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
COAST. THIS HAS PULLED IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA. MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNUSUAL WIND PROFILE WITH
SOUTH FLOW ALL THE WAY UP ALONG WITH VERY MOIST CONDITIONS/PWAT
2.10 INCHES. RADAR SHOWS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY AFFECTING MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT THE LAKE REGION. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS AREAS WHERE IT HAS BEEN RAINING ALREADY.
NEAR THE LAKE REGION...DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO MORNING HEATING AND THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW. SO WILL CONTINUE A WET FORECAST ACROSS
ALL AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE QUITE STRONG
...20-23 KNOTS ABOVE 2K FT...AND THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTH THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR ANY POSSIBLE TRAINING OF SHRA/TSRA LEADING
TO LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALL. /DG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON EVOLVING
WEATHER SCENARIO FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT FEW DAYS. MID-UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH. THE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED BY LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD
THE U.S. EAST COAST...PROBABLY BY EARLY FRIDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH TODAY...DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD LARGE AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SUPPORTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS. AREA NOT LIKELY TO SEE MUCH SUNSHINE TODAY. SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL
SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGH SWINGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. POPS
WILL ALSO BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE ALL ZONES ON SATURDAY...BUT
WITH UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVERHEAD AND SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH
RESTING JUST TO THE NORTH...COULD SEE STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON. NORMAL EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST PERIODS. ONLY EVENT
OF NOTE WILL BE WAVE PASSING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. GFS MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS LOOK GOOD.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTHERLY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS
MAINLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS...THEN SHIFT TO EASTERLY BY LATE SUNDAY AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. NO HIGHLIGHTS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS/CONCERNS.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

57

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
909 AM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

FLZ063-066>075-070800-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
909 AM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING ALL AREAS TODAY...
...MINOR URBAN FLOODING POSSIBLE METRO AREAS TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS ALL OF MAINLAND
SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING AT ANY TIME. OCCASIONAL DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: MOISTURE WILL BE ABUNDANT IN THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUALLY DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. MINOR URBAN
FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED UNDERPASSES AND DRAINAGE
DITCHES IS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

AN UNUSUAL MID SUMMER FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BECOMING DIFFUSE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
812 AM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

AMZ630-FLZ074-061300-
BISCAYNE BAY-MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN-
812 AM EDT THU JUL 6 2006

...THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING ACROSS METRO MIAMI-DADE...

AT 811 AM EDT...A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENDALE LAKES TO JUST
SOUTH OF CORAL GABLES SOUTHEAST THROUGH BISCAYNE BAY TO ELLIOTT KEY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH METRO MIAMI-DADE. RESIDENTS
OF METRO DADE CAN EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAINS, WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35
MPH, OCCASIONAL DANGEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
AS THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

ALL ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING NORTH AROUND 10 MPH.