Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Miami, FL

000
WWUS52 KMFL 041539
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1037 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

FLC021-051-041545-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-060204T1545Z/
HENDRY FL-COLLIER FL-
1037 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM EST
FOR EASTERN COLLIER AND SOUTHEASTERN HENDRY COUNTIES...

AT 1035 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BIG
CYPRESS RESERVATION...OR ABOUT 23 MILES SOUTH OF DEVILS 
GARDEN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THIS WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE SINCE THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF THIS AREA.GR

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY. NO REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN REPORTED
BUT RADAR INDICATES POSSIBLE SEVERE WINDS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4522 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2638 8133 2591 8137 2604 8090 2646 8091

$$

GR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
337 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

...POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...JET DYNAMICS ALOFT ALONG WITH LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ARE SPAWNING CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
GULF. THIS IS AHEAD OF A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT NOW
EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTH
GEORGIA...THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF. LOCALLY...THE AIRMASS REMAINS
FAIRLY UNSTABLE...WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG...AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S.

FOR TODAY...AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY EASTERLY GRADIENT
FLOW SO FAR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA. THE EAST FLOW HAS ENHANCED CONVECTION MOVING NORTHEAST
FROM THE INTERIOR...RESULTING IN PROFLIFIC LIGHTNING HAS WELL
PRODUCING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IN BROWARD COUNTY...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT WINDS TO VEER AROUND
GRADUALLY TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. DEEPENING ADN THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE VEERING WILL EVENTUALLY RESULT IN UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE AREA...AS WELL AS LOWER HELCITY VALUES AND REMOVE
THE LOCAL ADDED CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH STRONG ENOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO HAVE BOWING ECHOES PACKING DAMAGING
GUSTS TODAY...AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY AFTENROON. IN
ADDITION...WHILE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HIGH...TRAINING CELLS IN THE SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW MAY RESULT IN
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING OVER THE METRO AREAS.
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. FOR TODAYS FORECAST...WILL BUMP THE
LIKELY POPS TO CATEGORICAL...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND
DRIER AIR OVER THE FOLLOWING COUPLE OF DAYS. STILL EXPECT STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT...PUTTING SOUTH FLORIDAS
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS TO COME. SUNDAYS LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE 40S AND 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING..ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 30S OVER INTERIOR AREAS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

FOR NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. A RIDGE REMAINS PARKED OVER THE GULF FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...AREA COASTAL OBSERVATION AND CMANS ARE SHOWING GENERALLY
10 KTS AROUND THE AREA...WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY TO CAUTION LEVELS AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL DIP TO NEAR THRESHOLD
VALUES ON SUNDAY. NOT QUITE AS DRY ON MONDAY AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE
SEEPS ONSHORE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  47  67  47 /  80  20   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  48  69  52 /  80  20   0   0
MIAMI            79  52  69  52 /  80  20   0   0
NAPLES           73  50  67  46 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

CHRISTENSEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
454 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

CORRECTED TO ADD RIP CURRENTS TO WEST COAST BEACHES FOR TODAY.

FLZ063-066>075-051000-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
454 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RIP CURRENTS WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

HAIL: SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA COULD ALSO
HAVE NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS COLD.

FLOODING: THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO TRAIN ACROSS THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES, AND THE SOUTH FLORIDA
AS SEEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE...THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZE URBAN FLOODING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

RIP CURRENTS: THE WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE WEST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

...COLD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SEAS 7 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO SET UP. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AREAS, WITH MOSTLY 40S ELSEWHERE.

SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 7 FEET OR HIGHER LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM.
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN 7 FEET OR HIGHER ON SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING ON
MONDAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.

BAXTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

FLZ066-069-070-041600-
HENDRY-WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEWISTON...LA BELLE...
BIG CYPRESS SEMINOLE RESERVATION...NAPLES...IMMOKALEE
943 AM EST SAT FEB 4 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES...

AT 940 PM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN COLLIER AND WESTERN HENDRY COUNTIES. THESE
STORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL, VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 25 TO 30
MPH.