Red Flag Warning 47, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
434 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

...MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL IS ON THE HORIZON...

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTROL SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER TODAY. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA...AND WITH SUBSIDENCE AND LOW ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN
PLACE (PWAT SHY OF AN INCH ACCORDING TO GPS MET DATA)...EXPECT FULL
SUNSHINE ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
INTERIOR...BUT SEA BREEZES ALONG BOTH COASTS WILL HOLD TEMPS IN
THE 80S THERE. TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL BE TRANQUIL AS
WELL...BEFORE THINGS CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY THEREAFTER.

ON MONDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
BROAD CUTOFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL ACT TO PUSH A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL. MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASING DRAMATICALLY FROM AROUND ONE INCH MONDAY MORNING
TO NEAR 2 INCHES BY MON NIGHT. THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION COUPLED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY COULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
THUS...INCREASED POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON.

GFS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
FL MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING INTO THE ATLANTIC. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RATHER HIGH SHEAR VALUES IN A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA MON NIGHT...SO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE A GOOD
BET...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SHOULD
THIS SCENARIO PLAY OUT. THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TUESDAY...STALLING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS FLOW
BECOMES UNIDIRECTIONAL. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE DEEP WITH A
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTING NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY ON TUESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THU-FRI...WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE POSSIBLY RETURNING AGAIN BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD MAINTANING LOW SEAS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OF CONCERN TO MARINERS LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR
GLADES...HENDRY...EASTERN COLLIER...WESTERN PALM BEACH...AND
WESTERN BROWARD COUNTIES FOR LONG DURATION OF RHS BELOW 35
PERCENT. COASTAL ZONES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR RH TRENDS
THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE SEA BREEZE
WILL MODERATE MOISTURE SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS THESE AREAS. NO
CONCERNS THEN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT...BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL COULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  71  88  70 /   0  10  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  73  89  72 /   0  10  30  40
MIAMI            89  75  91  73 /   0  10  30  40
NAPLES           86  72  86  72 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
502 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

FLZ063-066>075-150900-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
458 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE COMBINATION OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A COLD FRONT
WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.