Red Flag Warning 37, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...TWO FEATURES ARE IN CONTROL OF THE NEAR TERM WEATHER.
THE LARGE LOW IN THE ATLANTIC AND THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S.  ATLANTIC LOW NOT MOVING MUCH THROUGH TOMORROW WHEN IT SHOULD
BE PICKED UP BY UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE NORTH.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST AND BY
LATE TUESDAY WE SHOULD BE NEAR THE RIDGELINE OF THIS HIGH.  THIS
SURFACE HIGH SHOULD JUST CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST IN THE ATLANTIC
UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE THAT IS IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
CARIBBEAN.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD THEN HOLD IN PLACE THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WEEK. GPSMET SHOWS LITTLE MOISTURE CHANGE AT EYW WITH SLIGHT
INCREASES AT NAPLES AND MIAMI.  AND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH NOT MOVING
MUCH THE MOISTURE FIELD SHOULD REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME.  SO NO
PRECIPITATION OR FOG AND ONLY SMALL TEMPERATURE CHANGES.

AS THE ATLANTIC LOW MOVES NORTH IT WILL PULL SOME COLD AIR SOUTH
INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY.  HOWEVER
THIS SHOULD STAY EAST OF OUR ZONES AS THE RIDGE WILL FORCE IT TO
REMAIN EAST OF THE PENINSULA.  BY THE WEEKEND THE SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD HAVE MOVED INTO THE ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL PUT US INTO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
ALONG WITH INTERIOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER MOISTURE STILL
RELATIVELY LIMITED SO WILL LEAVE THE PROBABILITIES LOW.

&&

.MARINE...WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW THAT MUCH SWELL COMING INTO THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY.  EVEN
THESE SWELLS ARE NOT THAT HIGH ALTHOUGH YOU CAN SEE THE RIP
CURRENTS.  SO WILL TAKE THE SWELL DOWN A LOT FASTER THAN EARLIER
INDICATED.  PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SPREADS SOUTHWARD.  PROBABLY WILL LEAVE SMALL CRAFT FOR SEAS TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THEM ON TUESDAY.  NEXT PROBLEM DAY WITH
THE WINDS WILL BE ON THE WEEKEND AS THE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WITH HIGH MAXIMUMS ON TUESDAY WARMER AND NO CHANGE
IN THE DEW POINTS WILL NEED A WATCH OVER THE INTERIOR FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND PROBABLY NEED TO REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  64  81  63  83 /   0   0   5   5
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  80  67  83 /   0   0   5   5
MIAMI            66  83  66  85 /   0   0   5   5
NAPLES           61  80  63  84 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING GLADES HENDRY AND COLLIER UNTIL 6 PM.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS ALL ATLANTIC WATERS
     TONIGHT.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1034 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2006

AMZ610-FLZ063-066>075-021445-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-
PALM BEACH EASTERN-WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-
WESTERN BROWARD-BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-
DADE METROPOLITAN-MAINLAND MONROE-
1034 AM EDT MON MAY 1 2006

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALL EAST COAST BEACHES...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY PALM BEACH COAST...
...GULF STREAM SEAS NEAR 10 FEET...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LARGE
NORTHEAST SWELLS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES TODAY.

WAVES: BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST WILL BE
AS HIGH AS 10 FEET TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF LAKE WORTH. SOUTH OF
LAKE WORTH, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE GENERALLY 7 TO 9 FEET. WAVES WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 7 FOOT RANGE AT THE BEACHES OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. THE LOWEST WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE AT THE
SOUTHERNMOST BEACHES. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF NORTHEAST SWELLS
AND THE NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT, GULF STREAM SEAS WILL BE 10 FEET
OR HIGHER OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY, AND 7 TO 9 FEET FURTHER SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF EAST COAST RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.