Red Flag Warning 36, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1000 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

.UPDATE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE. MAINLY TO
MARINE FORECAST. INCREASED SFC WINDS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUST AS SHIP REPORTS AND OBS FROM SPG INDICATE SUSTAINED 20+ KTS
WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE
LOOKS ON TRACK.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND SAT IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHES OF
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...SOME OF IT GENERATED BY THE LOW IN THE
WEST ATLANTIC... WILL CONTINUE TO COME WESTWARD OFF THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS AND OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM TIME TO
TIME. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOUDINESS ARE LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS BUT
ARE MOVING QUICKLY WITHIN THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW. BUT NO
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AND ONLY LIGHT
ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT INFREQUENT INTERVALS.

.MARINE...

MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS REGIONAL
WATERS. IN ADDITION LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL IN THE ATLANTIC ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE IN PERIOD AND HEIGHT TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WITH SWELL RANGING FROM 3 TO 5 FEET TODAY AND 4 TO 6 FEET
BY SUNDAY. THEREFORE...ALL PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENTS AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED WILL CONTINUE. IN ADDITION...A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT BUT ONLY FOR WEST PALM BEACH
COUNTY. THE ADVISORY MAY BE EXTENDED IN TIME AND AREA AS CONDITIONS
CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

PATCHES OF MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL STILL CONTINUE TO COME
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT THE
MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE. SO A LOCALLY DRY
AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY. THAT IN COMBINATION
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUATION OF THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INTERIOR AND WEST ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY EVENING FOR 4 CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  67  81  66 /  20  10   5   5
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  69  82  67 /  20  10   5   5
MIAMI            80  66  83  66 /  20  10   5   5
NAPLES           83  63  82  63 /   0   5   5   5

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR PALM BEACH EASTERN.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL
     WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
     WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NMTO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS
     FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20
     NM TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN
     REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
     DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH
     TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NMTO THE TERRITORIAL
     WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO
     DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL
     EXTENDING FROM20 TO 60 NM.

&&

60

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

FLZ063-066>075-301900-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
252 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2006

...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND...
...HIGH SURF CAUSING DANGEROUS WAVES AND POSSIBLY BEACH EROSION...
...GULF STREAM SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FEET TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A COMBINATION OF NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH,
LOW TIDE AT MID AFTERNOON AND AN INCREASING SWELL FROM THE
NORTHEAST HAVE LEAD TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES
OF PALM BEACH BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

WAVES: ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET WITH SEAS IN THE
GULF STREAM BECOMING 10 TO 12 FEET.

THOSE GOING TO THE BEACH, AND MARINERS AS WELL, NEED TO BE ALERT
TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH SURF, ROUGH INLETS, AND POSSIBLY
MODERATE BEACH EROSION DURING HIGH TIDE, AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS DURING LOW TIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WINDS WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH
FROM THE NORTHEAST. BUT NORTHEAST SWELLS OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL ALSO
PERSIST IN THE WATERS OFF OF EAST FLORIDA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WIND SPEEDS AND SWELLS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY HIGH SURF,
ROUGH INLETS, AND SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION DURING HIGH TIDE, AND
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DURING LOW TIDE THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING INTO NEXT WEEK.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.MIAMIWEATHER.INFO.