Wind Advisory 3, NWS Memphis, TN

Clay County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Crittenden County, AR, Cross County, AR, Greene County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Lee County, AR, Mississippi County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Poinsett County, AR, Randolph County, AR, St. Francis County, AR, Dunklin County, MO, Pemiscot County, MO, Benton County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, DeSoto County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Crockett County, TN, Dyer County, TN, Fayette County, TN, Gibson County, TN, Hardeman County, TN, Haywood County, TN, Lake County, TN, Lauderdale County, TN, Madison County, TN, Obion County, TN, Shelby County, TN, Tipton County, TN, Weakley County, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1114 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT ALONG I-44
IN MISSOURI AND OKLAHOMA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICTS 60KT 850MB LOW
LEVEL JET AND DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AT 250 MB. MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

MODERATE 700-500 MB LAYER LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM...60KTS 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...MLCAPES AROUND 1200 J/KG...AND 700 MB DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AROUND 10C SUGGEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS
TIME...THINK THAT CONVECTION WILL FORM INTO A LINE BY EARLY EVENING
WITH WIND AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CANNOT DISAGREE AT
THIS TIME WITH THE SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK...AND PREVIOUS SHIFT/S
CONVECTIVE THOUGHTS...BUT WILL DELAY TIMING OF ANY CONVECTION TO
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY
COVER/TEMPERATURES/WINDS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE PUBLISHED SHORTLY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 324 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006)

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. WARM
FRONT TO NEAR SGF AND IND. SOUTH WINDS HOLDING TEMPS UP WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH TEMPS IN UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S AT 08Z. DEWPOINTS
MAINLY IN THE 50S. PLENTY OF CLOUDS AT 5000-7000 FEET THIS MORNING.

SHORT TERM (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE FRONT...AND BE IN NORTHERN INDIANA TONIGHT. THE STORM
WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT. WILL GO CHANCE POPS TODAY. NAM MORE UNSTABLE (800 CAPE AND
L.I. OF -3.5) THAN GFS (300 CAPE AND L.I. OF -1). BEST SHEAR WILL
BE TO OUR NORTH...BUT SPC HAS ABOUT 75 PERCENT OF OUR CWA
OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK. WILL MENTION IN HWO BUT NOT ZONES FOR
NOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE PUSHING 70 FOR HIGHS TODAY. WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE A FEW PLACES IN THE MIDDLE 70S IF THEY GET ENOUGH
SUN. APPEARS THAT SURFACE WINDS...SUSTAINED...SHOULD RUN JUST
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT...ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS QUICKER THAN
RUNS OF 24 HOURS AGO. THIS SHOULD GET FRONT THROUGH ENTIRE CWA BY
SUNRISE FRIDAY. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOS
GUIDANCE NOT SHOWING THE RAPID DROP IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AFTER
THE FROPA. SEEING CONSISTENT 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGES ON
OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE FRONT. AFTER FRONT MOVES THROUGH
CWA...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD FALL A LITTLE BIT FOR ABOUT 18 TO 24
HOURS. FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET...BUT CLOUDY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
30S TO MID 40S. ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
COLD AIR IN PLACE...THIS MEANS WINTRY PRECIPITATION A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY...AT LEAST. WILL GO WITH 40 TO 60 POPS. SURFACE COLD
POOL IS SUPPOSEDLY VERY SHALLOW. MODELS AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE A
SIGNIFICANT COLD POCKET BETWEEN 850 AND 1000 MB...WITH WARMING
ABOVE THAT. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA...EXCEPT ABOUT NORTHERN QUARTER OF CWA...WHICH COULD BE ALL
SNOW...AND SOUTHERN THIRD...WHICH COULD BE ALL LIQUID. GFS MORE
BULLISH ON QPF THAN NAM...WHICH WOULD MEAN SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS.
WITH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE
DISTRIBUTION...WILL HOLD OFF ON WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS
PACKAGE. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED LATER IF TRENDS CONTINUE. HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY AND BEYOND)...
COLD FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES ON SUNDAY. AS
MOISTURE RIDES UP OVER THE COLD AIR...PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE
LIKELY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. QPF MAPS INDICATE
THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT EVENT AS WELL...WITH SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FREEZING OR FROZEN BEFORE WARMER AIR MELTS IT. WE
FINALLY BEGIN DRYING OUT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

WAGNER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-171145-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
342 AM CST THU FEB 16 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST
TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EAST ARKANSAS TONIGHT. THE
AREA WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SAVANNAH...TO OXFORD
AND CLARKSDALE. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE BIGGEST
THREATS TO BE EXPECTED...WITH THE TIME OF GREATEST CONCERN BEING
BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

WINDS MAY ALSO GUST TO AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LESS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. THESE BOUTS OF WINTRY WEATHER COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH
TO ALLOW SIGNIFICANT ICING IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH...MAINLY ON
EXPOSED OBJECTS. MORE INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE ON THE WINTER
WEATHER SITUATION IN LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.