Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
203 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...

INITIAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH AT
THIS TIME. A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS) ARE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
ADDITIONAL DEBRIS WITH THE CLUSTER HAVE SEVERELY LIMITED
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THAT THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE HAS SCOURED OUT A GOOD DEAL OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE
LEAVING ONLY NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE FOR THE FRONT TO WORK WITH AS
IT COMES THROUGH TONIGHT. NAM APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON
THE SITUATION WHICH INDICATE THAT RAIN CHANCES ARE REALLY LOW
BECAUSE OF LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. HOWEVER...IF A STORM OR TWO WERE
TO DEVELOP THERE IS PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE. ASSUMING ADDITIONAL
HEATING BEHIND THE INITIAL CLUSTER...CAPES OF AROUND 1000-
1500J/KG. SO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN A THREAT
IF CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW DEW POINTS WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FREEZING TEMPS IN
THE OUTLYING AREAS OF WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS IF WINDS SLACKEN OFF ENOUGH AT NIGHT. GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TRYING TO MOVE OVER THE
RIDGE AXIS POSITIONED JUST WEST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY. RAIN CHANCES RISE ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SYSTEM ROLLS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SYSTEM
LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO CURRENT ONE AND MAY HAVE A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

VALLE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
514 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             RAVENDEN                36.24N 91.25W
04/02/2006  M1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0511 PM     HAIL             RAVENDEN SPRINGS        36.31N 91.22W
04/02/2006  M1.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

&&

ARC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
520 PM CDT SUN APR 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             RAVENDEN                36.24N 91.25W
04/02/2006  M1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0511 PM     HAIL             RAVENDEN SPRINGS        36.31N 91.22W
04/02/2006  M1.00 INCH       RANDOLPH           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

0515 PM     TORNADO          IMBODEN                 36.20N 91.18W
04/02/2006                   LAWRENCE           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0516 PM     HAIL             RAVENDEN SPRINGS        36.31N 91.22W
04/02/2006  M2.75 INCH       RANDOLPH           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

ARC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

MOZ115-030000-
PEMISCOT MO-
626 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2006

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR...PEMISCOT COUNTY.

A TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 27 MILES WEST OF DEERING AT 626
PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. ON ITS CURRENT TRACK...THIS STORM
MAY ENTER INTO PEMISCOT COUNTY MISSOURI AROUND 7 PM.

PEOPLE IN PEMISCOT COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CARUTHERSVILLE
AND HAYTI...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM EXTREMELY CLOSELY. THIS STORM
HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING TORNADOES ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. IF THE
STORM MAINTAINS ITS CURRENT STRENGTH...A TORNADO WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PEMISCOT COUNTY.

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