Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1006 AM CST THU MAR 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE CWA. A LARGER
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER AR WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MODEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES
INDICATE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL TRACK NEWD
INTO SE MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO ILLINOIS BY EARLY EVENING.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A DEEP 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING. ALL OF THESE FEATURES ARE KEY PLAYERS
WITH THIS SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE COMBINING WITH SOLAR HEATING. A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE DEEPENING LOW WILL PROVIDE A
STRONG SOUTH WIND THROUGH THE DAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT. ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COME FROM
WEAK SHORTWAVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING PROVIDING ANOTHER ENHANCED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW THAT FRONT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

SWC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1208 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-101200-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1208 PM CST THU MAR 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG WITH A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...STRONG SOUTH WINDS AHEAD
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUSTAINED OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES WITH
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
SHORT TERM FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS...PLEASE RELAY YOUR SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ONGOING.

SWC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
238 PM CST THU MAR 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0228 PM     HAIL             W CORINTH               34.94N 88.52W
03/09/2006  E0.88 INCH       ALCORN             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HWY 72 WEST OF
            CORINTH

&&

DSV

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