Severe Thunderstorm Warning 429, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...

HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE EXTENDED UNTIL 700 PM CDT TONIGHT.

RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID TEMPERATURES WILL COME TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE
WILL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND AND A 500 MB JET WILL ALSO BE
ENTERING THE CWA AT THE TIME THUS SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THE STORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL OCCUR
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MEMPHIS TO JACKSON TENNESSEE.

BY SATURDAY...FRONT WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE CWA AND SHOULD
BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CWA BY 00Z SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT REMNANT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION TO BE MOVING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA IN THE MORNING. REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL PROBABLY BE
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S WARMING TO
THE LOWER 90S BY TUESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RETURN TO THE REGION AND THIS WILL HELP TO SET OFF DIURNAL
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  75  88  67  88 /  50  50  10   0
MKL  72  86  62  86 /  50  50  10   0
JBR  71  86  63  88 /  60  30  10   0
TUP  76  91  68  89 /  20  50  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE(MS)-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

KRM

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